Away team
Washington Capitals
35.6%
Fair American
+181
Fair decimal
2.81
Washington Capitals vs Minnesota Wild prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 7, 2027
NHL matchup
Washington Capitals at Minnesota Wild
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 7, 2027.
March 7, 2027
· 8:30 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Minnesota Wild at 64.4%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Minnesota Wild
64.4%
Fair American
-181
Fair decimal
1.55
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 7, 2027.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 4-2
- Net units
- 1.42
- ROI
- 23.6%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.96
- ROI
- 32.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 5-2
- Net units
- 1.86
- ROI
- 26.5%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 6-1
- Net units
- 2.96
- ROI
- 42.3%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Net units
- 0.36
- ROI
- 7.3%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 7-2
- Net units
- 2.61
- ROI
- 29.0%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 7. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Washington Capitals
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
41:39 together · 6 games
- Corsi for / against
- 41 / 38
- Fenwick for / against
- 32 / 27
- Corsi share
- 51.9%
- Fenwick share
- 54.2%
- xG for / against
- 2.56 / 1.53
Defense pair
87:35 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 78 / 105
- Fenwick for / against
- 61 / 80
- Corsi share
- 42.6%
- Fenwick share
- 43.3%
- xG for / against
- 4.29 / 4.54
Minnesota Wild
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
122:28 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 150 / 75
- Fenwick for / against
- 116 / 59
- Corsi share
- 66.7%
- Fenwick share
- 66.3%
- xG for / against
- 9.98 / 3.91
Defense pair
95:23 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 119 / 65
- Fenwick for / against
- 93 / 44
- Corsi share
- 64.7%
- Fenwick share
- 67.9%
- xG for / against
- 7.35 / 3.54
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Washington Capitals
Expected starter unavailable.
Minnesota Wild
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Charlie Lindgren
Washington Capitals · Last start: Oct 24
3 / 3 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 79
- Save %
- 88.6
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 25.3
Calvin Pickard
Minnesota Wild · Last start: Oct 25
2 / 2 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 42
- Save %
- 83.3
- Goals allowed
- 7
- Close-range shots %
- 23.8
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 7, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Washington Capitals
- xG for / game
- 3.53
- xG against / game
- 3.37
- xG differential / game
- 0.16
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Minnesota Wild
- xG for / game
- 3.95
- xG against / game
- 2.76
- xG differential / game
- 1.20
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 7, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Washington Capitals
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 54.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 46.4
- Fenwick share (%)
- 47.8
- Faceoff win %
- 50.2
- Penalties / game
- 4.4
Shots / game: 27.5 · Shooting: 12.4% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft
Minnesota Wild
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 64.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 54.9
- Fenwick share (%)
- 57.4
- Faceoff win %
- 51.6
- Penalties / game
- 3.9
Shots / game: 32.7 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 33.0 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
WSH
|
Metric |
MIN
|
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Points | 18 |
| 0.600 | Points % | 0.692 |
| 34 | Goals for | 41 |
| 32 | Goals against | 30 |
| 2 | Goal differential | 11 |
| W1 | Current streak | W2 |
Road versus home
|
WSH road
|
Metric |
MIN home
|
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Games | 4 |
| 1 | Wins | 4 |
| 2 | Points | 8 |
| -1 | Goal differential | 7 |
Last 10 games
|
WSH
|
Metric |
MIN
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-4-0 | Record | 6-3-1 |
| 12 | Points | 13 |
| 34 | Goals for | 32 |
| 32 | Goals against | 25 |
| 2 | Goal differential | 7 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
WSH
2 wins
10
games reviewed
MIN
8 wins
Total goals24 – 38
Goal differential
-14
/
+14
Goals per game2.4 / 3.8
Shots per game32.6 / 27.4
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 |
Washington Capitals
at
Minnesota Wild
|
0 - 5 | 25 - 32 | View |
| Oct 17, 2025 |
Minnesota Wild
at
Washington Capitals
|
1 - 5 | 14 - 45 | View |
| Mar 27, 2025 |
Washington Capitals
at
Minnesota Wild
|
2 - 4 | 30 - 21 | View |
| Jan 2, 2025 |
Minnesota Wild
at
Washington Capitals
|
4 - 3 | 33 - 31 | View |
| Jan 23, 2024 |
Washington Capitals
at
Minnesota Wild
|
3 - 5 | 33 - 30 | View |
| Oct 27, 2023 |
Minnesota Wild
at
Washington Capitals
|
2 - 3 | 41 - 33 | View |
| Mar 19, 2023 |
Washington Capitals
at
Minnesota Wild
|
3 - 5 | 36 - 40 | View |
| Jan 17, 2023 |
Minnesota Wild
at
Washington Capitals
|
4 - 2 | 22 - 36 | View |
| Apr 3, 2022 |
Minnesota Wild
at
Washington Capitals
|
5 - 1 | 19 - 26 | View |
| Jan 8, 2022 |
Washington Capitals
at
Minnesota Wild
|
2 - 3 | 31 - 22 | View |