Away team
Washington Capitals
35.0%
Fair American
+186
Fair decimal
2.86
Washington Capitals vs Dallas Stars prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 15, 2026
NHL matchup
Washington Capitals at Dallas Stars
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 15, 2026.
December 15, 2026
· 8:30 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Dallas Stars at 65.0%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Dallas Stars
65.0%
Fair American
-186
Fair decimal
1.54
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 15, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 4-2
- Net units
- 1.42
- ROI
- 23.6%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.96
- ROI
- 32.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 5-2
- Net units
- 1.86
- ROI
- 26.5%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.09
- ROI
- 3.1%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 6-3
- Net units
- 0.55
- ROI
- 6.1%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 15. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Washington Capitals
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
41:39 together · 6 games
- Corsi for / against
- 41 / 38
- Fenwick for / against
- 32 / 27
- Corsi share
- 51.9%
- Fenwick share
- 54.2%
- xG for / against
- 2.56 / 1.53
Defense pair
87:35 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 78 / 105
- Fenwick for / against
- 61 / 80
- Corsi share
- 42.6%
- Fenwick share
- 43.3%
- xG for / against
- 4.29 / 4.54
Dallas Stars
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
52:30 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 52 / 43
- Fenwick for / against
- 36 / 23
- Corsi share
- 54.7%
- Fenwick share
- 61.0%
- xG for / against
- 2.76 / 0.94
Defense pair
96:24 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 99 / 73
- Fenwick for / against
- 66 / 48
- Corsi share
- 57.6%
- Fenwick share
- 57.9%
- xG for / against
- 3.83 / 2.68
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Washington Capitals
Expected starter unavailable.
Dallas Stars
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Charlie Lindgren
Washington Capitals · Last start: Oct 24
3 / 3 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 79
- Save %
- 88.6
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 25.3
Jake Oettinger
Dallas Stars · Last start: Oct 25
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 102
- Save %
- 90.2
- Goals allowed
- 10
- Close-range shots %
- 34.3
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 15, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Washington Capitals
- xG for / game
- 3.53
- xG against / game
- 3.37
- xG differential / game
- 0.16
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Dallas Stars
- xG for / game
- 3.33
- xG against / game
- 2.56
- xG differential / game
- 0.77
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 15, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Washington Capitals
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 54.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 46.4
- Fenwick share (%)
- 47.8
- Faceoff win %
- 50.2
- Penalties / game
- 4.4
Shots / game: 27.5 · Shooting: 12.4% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft
Dallas Stars
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 58.0
- Corsi share (%)
- 53.6
- Fenwick share (%)
- 54.7
- Faceoff win %
- 55.7
- Penalties / game
- 4.0
Shots / game: 28.0 · Shooting: 11.1% · Avg distance: 31.0 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
WSH
|
Metric |
DAL
|
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Points | 15 |
| 0.600 | Points % | 0.682 |
| 34 | Goals for | 32 |
| 32 | Goals against | 20 |
| 2 | Goal differential | 12 |
| W1 | Current streak | W5 |
Road versus home
|
WSH road
|
Metric |
DAL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Games | 6 |
| 1 | Wins | 4 |
| 2 | Points | 8 |
| -1 | Goal differential | 5 |
Last 10 games
|
WSH
|
Metric |
DAL
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-4-0 | Record | 7-2-1 |
| 12 | Points | 15 |
| 34 | Goals for | 32 |
| 32 | Goals against | 16 |
| 2 | Goal differential | 16 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
WSH
2 wins
10
games reviewed
DAL
8 wins
Total goals21 – 27
Goal differential
-6
/
+6
Goals per game2.1 / 2.7
Shots per game29.5 / 28.1
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 |
Dallas Stars
at
Washington Capitals
|
4 - 1 | 36 - 24 | View |
| Oct 28, 2025 |
Washington Capitals
at
Dallas Stars
|
0 - 1 | 24 - 19 | View |
| Dec 16, 2024 |
Washington Capitals
at
Dallas Stars
|
1 - 3 | 26 - 24 | View |
| Oct 17, 2024 |
Dallas Stars
at
Washington Capitals
|
2 - 3 | 24 - 26 | View |
| Jan 27, 2024 |
Washington Capitals
at
Dallas Stars
|
4 - 5 | 28 - 35 | View |
| Dec 7, 2023 |
Dallas Stars
at
Washington Capitals
|
5 - 4 | 38 - 27 | View |
| Dec 15, 2022 |
Dallas Stars
at
Washington Capitals
|
2 - 1 | 26 - 46 | View |
| Oct 27, 2022 |
Washington Capitals
at
Dallas Stars
|
0 - 2 | 27 - 27 | View |
| Mar 20, 2022 |
Dallas Stars
at
Washington Capitals
|
3 - 2 | 23 - 38 | View |
| Jan 28, 2022 |
Washington Capitals
at
Dallas Stars
|
5 - 0 | 29 - 29 | View |