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Washington Capitals vs Colorado Avalanche prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 12, 2026

NHL matchup

Washington Capitals at Colorado Avalanche

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 12, 2026.

December 12, 2026 · 8:00 PM CST
Away

Washington Capitals

7-4-0

33.7%
at
Home

Colorado Avalanche

7-5-1

66.3% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Colorado Avalanche at 66.3%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Washington Capitals logo
Away team

Washington Capitals

33.7%
Fair American +197
Fair decimal 2.97
Calculate value
Colorado Avalanche logo
Home team

Colorado Avalanche

66.3%
Fair American -197
Fair decimal 1.51
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 12, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 12. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

51:45 together · 7 games

xG share66.0%
Corsi for / against
55 / 44
Fenwick for / against
43 / 30
Corsi share
55.6%
Fenwick share
58.9%
xG for / against
3.53 / 1.82
Defense pair

85:54 together · 10 games

xG share47.9%
Corsi for / against
77 / 105
Fenwick for / against
60 / 80
Corsi share
42.3%
Fenwick share
42.9%
xG for / against
4.07 / 4.43
All observed combinations

Colorado Avalanche

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

98:06 together · 9 games

xG share57.8%
Corsi for / against
133 / 83
Fenwick for / against
92 / 68
Corsi share
61.6%
Fenwick share
57.5%
xG for / against
6.24 / 4.56
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Logan Thompson

Washington Capitals · Last start: Oct 28

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
142
Save %
88.7
Goals allowed
16
Close-range shots %
31.0

Mackenzie Blackwood

Colorado Avalanche · Last start: Oct 28

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
138
Save %
91.3
Goals allowed
12
Close-range shots %
39.1
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 12, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Washington Capitals

xG for / game
3.52
xG against / game
3.20
xG differential / game
0.33

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Colorado Avalanche

xG for / game
3.19
xG against / game
2.93
xG differential / game
0.26

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 12, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.7
Corsi share (%)
48.1
Fenwick share (%)
49.5
Faceoff win %
49.1
Penalties / game
4.1

Shots / game: 27.8 · Shooting: 12.2% · Avg distance: 31.7 ft

Colorado Avalanche

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
62.9
Corsi share (%)
52.3
Fenwick share (%)
52.1
Faceoff win %
46.6
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 29.6 · Shooting: 12.8% · Avg distance: 32.7 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Washington Capitals WSH
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL
14Points15
0.636Points %0.577
39Goals for54
34Goals against42
5Goal differential12
W2Current streakW1
Road versus home
Washington Capitals WSH road
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL home
3Games7
1Wins5
2Points11
-1Goal differential14
Last 10 games
Washington Capitals WSH
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL
6-4-0Record5-4-1
12Points11
34Goals for38
32Goals against34
2Goal differential4
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Washington Capitals WSH 3 wins
10 games reviewed
Colorado Avalanche COL 7 wins
Total goals26 – 36
Goal differential -10 / +10
Goals per game2.6 / 3.6
Shots per game28.5 / 29.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 22, 2026
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
3 - 2 24 - 22 View
Jan 19, 2026
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
2 - 5 24 - 44 View
Nov 21, 2024
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
2 - 1 27 - 29 View
Nov 15, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
5 - 2 20 - 19 View
Feb 13, 2024
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
6 - 3 37 - 27 View
Jan 24, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
2 - 6 25 - 31 View
Jan 24, 2023
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
2 - 3 39 - 26 View
Nov 19, 2022
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
4 - 0 29 - 32 View
Apr 18, 2022
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
3 - 2 27 - 26 View
Oct 19, 2021
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
3 - 6 27 - 40 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings WSH COL