Skip to content

Washington Capitals vs Carolina Hurricanes prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 13, 2026

NHL matchup

Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 13, 2026.

October 13, 2026 · 5:45 PM CST
Away

Washington Capitals

6-4-0

2
Final
Home

Carolina Hurricanes

10-2-2

4 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Carolina Hurricanes at 62.1% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Washington Capitals logo
Away team

Washington Capitals

37.9%
Fair American +164
Fair decimal 2.64
Best market +135 · BetMGM
Market implied 42.6%
Edge -4.7%
Expected value -10.9%
Calculate value
Carolina Hurricanes logo
Home team

Carolina Hurricanes

62.1%
Fair American -164
Fair decimal 1.61
Best market -153 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 60.5%
Edge +1.6%
Expected value +2.7%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 13, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 13. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Washington Capitals

5 / 5 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

33:59 together · 4 games

xG share56.1%
Corsi for / against
35 / 36
Fenwick for / against
28 / 27
Corsi share
49.3%
Fenwick share
50.9%
xG for / against
2.71 / 2.12
Defense pair

44:24 together · 5 games

xG share53.2%
Corsi for / against
49 / 43
Fenwick for / against
37 / 34
Corsi share
53.3%
Fenwick share
52.1%
xG for / against
2.57 / 2.26
All observed combinations

Carolina Hurricanes

7 / 7 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

62:09 together · 7 games

xG share63.3%
Corsi for / against
71 / 43
Fenwick for / against
50 / 35
Corsi share
62.3%
Fenwick share
58.8%
xG for / against
4.27 / 2.48
Defense pair

101:31 together · 7 games

xG share50.5%
Corsi for / against
96 / 78
Fenwick for / against
67 / 63
Corsi share
55.2%
Fenwick share
51.5%
xG for / against
4.66 / 4.57
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Washington Capitals

Logan Thompson 63.0%
Other eligible goalies

Why Logan Thompson?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.884
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.349
Consecutive starts
-0.278
Started last game
-0.269
Team win pct before
-0.261
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 13, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Carolina Hurricanes

Brandon Bussi 69.4%
Other eligible goalies

Why Brandon Bussi?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.621
Started last game
+0.522
Days since last start
+0.280
Team win pct before
-0.272
Won previous appearance
+0.270
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 13, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Logan Thompson

Washington Capitals · Last start: Oct 11

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
112
Save %
90.2
Goals allowed
11
Close-range shots %
32.1

Pyotr Kochetkov

Carolina Hurricanes · Last start: Oct 11

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
57
Save %
91.2
Goals allowed
5
Close-range shots %
26.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 13, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Washington Capitals

xG for / game
3.43
xG against / game
3.64
xG differential / game
-0.21

5 / 5 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Carolina Hurricanes

xG for / game
4.06
xG against / game
2.41
xG differential / game
1.64

7 / 7 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 13, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Washington Capitals

5 / 5 games covered

Attempts / game
56.0
Corsi share (%)
47.5
Fenwick share (%)
48.5
Faceoff win %
49.8
Penalties / game
4.8

Shots / game: 27.6 · Shooting: 12.3% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Carolina Hurricanes

7 / 7 games covered

Attempts / game
64.3
Corsi share (%)
59.6
Fenwick share (%)
59.9
Faceoff win %
51.3
Penalties / game
4.86

Shots / game: 31.9 · Shooting: 12.1% · Avg distance: 30.6 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Washington Capitals WSH
Metric
Carolina Hurricanes CAR
12Points22
0.600Points %0.786
34Goals for53
32Goals against34
2Goal differential19
W1Current streakW2
Road versus home
Washington Capitals WSH road
Metric
Carolina Hurricanes CAR home
3Games5
1Wins3
2Points7
-1Goal differential4
Last 10 games
Washington Capitals WSH
Metric
Carolina Hurricanes CAR
6-4-0Record8-1-1
12Points17
34Goals for42
32Goals against22
2Goal differential20
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Washington Capitals WSH 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Carolina Hurricanes CAR 4 wins
Total goals35 – 33
Goal differential +2 / -2
Goals per game3.5 / 3.3
Shots per game25.5 / 33.6
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 2, 2026
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes
5 - 2 27 - 33 View
Jan 31, 2026
Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
3 - 4 22 - 42 View
Dec 11, 2025
Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
3 - 2 39 - 25 View
Nov 11, 2025
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes
4 - 1 28 - 31 View
Apr 10, 2025
Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
4 - 5 34 - 28 View
Apr 2, 2025
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes
1 - 5 21 - 31 View
Dec 20, 2024
Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
1 - 3 25 - 22 View
Nov 3, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes
2 - 4 21 - 45 View
Apr 5, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes
2 - 4 16 - 45 View
Mar 22, 2024
Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
6 - 7 31 - 25 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings WSH CAR