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Vancouver Canucks vs New York Rangers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 11, 2026

NHL matchup

Vancouver Canucks at New York Rangers

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 11, 2026.

October 11, 2026 · 5:00 PM CST
Away

Vancouver Canucks

2-10-1

2
Final
Home

New York Rangers

7-5-1

6 Model pick
Model V2 pick: New York Rangers at 58.2% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Vancouver Canucks logo
Away team

Vancouver Canucks

41.8%
Fair American +139
Fair decimal 2.39
Best market +236 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 29.8%
Edge +12.0%
Expected value +40.4%
Calculate value
New York Rangers logo
Home team

New York Rangers

58.2%
Fair American -139
Fair decimal 1.72
Best market -265 · DraftKings
Market implied 72.6%
Edge -14.4%
Expected value -19.8%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 11, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 11. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Vancouver Canucks

6 / 6 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

66:39 together · 6 games

xG share29.7%
Corsi for / against
40 / 86
Fenwick for / against
25 / 63
Corsi share
31.7%
Fenwick share
28.4%
xG for / against
1.89 / 4.47
All observed combinations

New York Rangers

6 / 6 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

79:05 together · 6 games

xG share36.0%
Corsi for / against
59 / 77
Fenwick for / against
37 / 56
Corsi share
43.4%
Fenwick share
39.8%
xG for / against
2.73 / 4.85
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Vancouver Canucks

Kevin Lankinen 59.8%
Other eligible goalies

Why Kevin Lankinen?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Team played yesterday
+0.933
Prev save pct
-0.442
Started last game
+0.383
Goalie win pct before
-0.340
Consecutive starts
+0.225
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 11, 1:38 PM Winnipeg time

New York Rangers

Dylan Garand 66.9%
Other eligible goalies

Why Dylan Garand?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
-0.675
Started last game
+0.321
Played last game
+0.283
Days since last start
+0.265
Rolling 5 game avg save pct
+0.253
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 11, 1:38 PM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Leevi Meriläinen

Vancouver Canucks · Last start: Oct 10

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
84
Save %
92.9
Goals allowed
6
Close-range shots %
38.1

Igor Shesterkin

New York Rangers · Last start: Oct 9

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
109
Save %
92.7
Goals allowed
8
Close-range shots %
33.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 11, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Vancouver Canucks

xG for / game
2.37
xG against / game
3.94
xG differential / game
-1.56

6 / 6 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

New York Rangers

xG for / game
3.05
xG against / game
2.75
xG differential / game
0.30

6 / 6 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 11, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Vancouver Canucks

6 / 6 games covered

Attempts / game
46.0
Corsi share (%)
42.7
Fenwick share (%)
41.7
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
4.33

Shots / game: 22.0 · Shooting: 16.7% · Avg distance: 32.6 ft

New York Rangers

6 / 6 games covered

Attempts / game
50.5
Corsi share (%)
47.9
Fenwick share (%)
48.3
Faceoff win %
52.5
Penalties / game
4.67

Shots / game: 23.0 · Shooting: 12.3% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Vancouver Canucks VAN
Metric
New York Rangers NYR
5Points15
0.192Points %0.577
37Goals for41
60Goals against36
-23Goal differential5
L4Current streakL2
Road versus home
Vancouver Canucks VAN road
Metric
New York Rangers NYR home
7Games6
1Wins6
3Points12
-15Goal differential19
Last 10 games
Vancouver Canucks VAN
Metric
New York Rangers NYR
0-9-1Record5-4-1
1Points11
20Goals for34
45Goals against32
-25Goal differential2
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Vancouver Canucks VAN 4 wins
10 games reviewed
New York Rangers NYR 6 wins
Total goals33 – 32
Goal differential +1 / -1
Goals per game3.3 / 3.2
Shots per game28.6 / 26.6
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Dec 16, 2025
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at New York Rangers New York Rangers
3 - 0 17 - 23 View
Oct 28, 2025
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
2 - 0 25 - 23 View
Mar 22, 2025
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at New York Rangers New York Rangers
3 - 5 39 - 12 View
Nov 19, 2024
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
4 - 3 33 - 24 View
Jan 8, 2024
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at New York Rangers New York Rangers
6 - 3 26 - 42 View
Oct 28, 2023
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
4 - 3 24 - 33 View
Feb 15, 2023
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
6 - 4 28 - 29 View
Feb 8, 2023
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at New York Rangers New York Rangers
3 - 4 25 - 21 View
Feb 27, 2022
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at New York Rangers New York Rangers
5 - 2 34 - 33 View
Nov 2, 2021
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
2 - 3 25 - 36 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings VAN NYR