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Vancouver Canucks vs New York Islanders prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 13, 2026

NHL matchup

Vancouver Canucks at New York Islanders

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 13, 2026.

October 13, 2026 · 6:45 PM CST
Away

Vancouver Canucks

2-10-1

2
Final
Home

New York Islanders

5-4-2

3 Model pick
Model V2 pick: New York Islanders at 60.4% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Vancouver Canucks logo
Away team

Vancouver Canucks

39.6%
Fair American +153
Fair decimal 2.53
Best market +185 · BetRivers
Market implied 35.1%
Edge +4.5%
Expected value +12.9%
Calculate value
New York Islanders logo
Home team

New York Islanders

60.4%
Fair American -153
Fair decimal 1.66
Best market -200 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 66.7%
Edge -6.3%
Expected value -9.4%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 13, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 13. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Vancouver Canucks

7 / 7 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

81:15 together · 7 games

xG share33.9%
Corsi for / against
50 / 89
Fenwick for / against
39 / 64
Corsi share
36.0%
Fenwick share
37.9%
xG for / against
2.03 / 3.96
All observed combinations

New York Islanders

5 / 5 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

40:10 together · 5 games

xG share52.0%
Corsi for / against
27 / 40
Fenwick for / against
20 / 26
Corsi share
40.3%
Fenwick share
43.5%
xG for / against
1.73 / 1.60
Defense pair

37:47 together · 5 games

xG share59.5%
Corsi for / against
34 / 30
Fenwick for / against
24 / 25
Corsi share
53.1%
Fenwick share
49.0%
xG for / against
2.06 / 1.40
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Vancouver Canucks

Leevi Meriläinen 60.3%
Other eligible goalies

Why Leevi Meriläinen?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
-0.480
Team win pct before
+0.436
Started last game
+0.239
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.228
Won previous appearance
-0.203
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 13, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

New York Islanders

Ilya Sorokin 82.0%
Other eligible goalies

Why Ilya Sorokin?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+1.181
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.409
Days since last start
+0.314
Started last game
-0.285
Team win pct before
+0.243
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 13, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Kevin Lankinen

Vancouver Canucks · Last start: Oct 11

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
95
Save %
74.7
Goals allowed
24
Close-range shots %
42.1

Ilya Sorokin

New York Islanders · Last start: Oct 10

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
111
Save %
93.7
Goals allowed
7
Close-range shots %
27.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 13, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Vancouver Canucks

xG for / game
2.30
xG against / game
3.91
xG differential / game
-1.61

7 / 7 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

New York Islanders

xG for / game
2.79
xG against / game
2.98
xG differential / game
-0.19

5 / 5 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 13, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Vancouver Canucks

7 / 7 games covered

Attempts / game
47.1
Corsi share (%)
43.7
Fenwick share (%)
42.8
Faceoff win %
48.0
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 21.9 · Shooting: 15.7% · Avg distance: 32.2 ft

New York Islanders

5 / 5 games covered

Attempts / game
49.8
Corsi share (%)
47.1
Fenwick share (%)
46.8
Faceoff win %
51.3
Penalties / game
5.0

Shots / game: 24.0 · Shooting: 13.3% · Avg distance: 31.6 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Vancouver Canucks VAN
Metric
New York Islanders NYI
5Points12
0.192Points %0.545
37Goals for32
60Goals against29
-23Goal differential3
L4Current streakL1
Road versus home
Vancouver Canucks VAN road
Metric
New York Islanders NYI home
7Games6
1Wins4
3Points9
-15Goal differential8
Last 10 games
Vancouver Canucks VAN
Metric
New York Islanders NYI
0-9-1Record5-3-2
1Points12
20Goals for31
45Goals against27
-25Goal differential4
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Vancouver Canucks VAN 6 wins
10 games reviewed
New York Islanders NYI 4 wins
Total goals38 – 37
Goal differential +1 / -1
Goals per game3.8 / 3.7
Shots per game32.5 / 28.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 19, 2026
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
4 - 3 32 - 32 View
Dec 19, 2025
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at New York Islanders New York Islanders
4 - 1 30 - 23 View
Mar 26, 2025
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at New York Islanders New York Islanders
5 - 2 25 - 28 View
Nov 14, 2024
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
5 - 2 32 - 26 View
Jan 9, 2024
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at New York Islanders New York Islanders
5 - 2 34 - 20 View
Nov 15, 2023
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
3 - 4 33 - 43 View
Feb 9, 2023
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at New York Islanders New York Islanders
6 - 5 34 - 29 View
Jan 3, 2023
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
6 - 2 29 - 26 View
Mar 3, 2022
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at New York Islanders New York Islanders
4 - 3 38 - 27 View
Feb 9, 2022
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
6 - 3 27 - 37 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings VAN NYI