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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Winnipeg Jets prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 11, 2027

NHL matchup

Toronto Maple Leafs at Winnipeg Jets

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 11, 2027.

March 11, 2027 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

57.8% Model pick
at
Home

Winnipeg Jets

4-4-3

42.2%
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 57.8%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Away team

Toronto Maple Leafs

57.8%
Fair American -137
Fair decimal 1.73
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 11, 2027.

Winnipeg Jets

All Model Picks

Bets
4
Record
1-3
Net units
-2.07
ROI
-51.9%

Value Picks

Bets
6
Record
2-4
Net units
-0.82
ROI
-13.7%

Market Favourite

Bets
4
Record
1-3
Net units
-2.07
ROI
-51.9%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 11. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

104:16 together · 10 games

xG share45.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 118
Fenwick for / against
71 / 87
Corsi share
42.4%
Fenwick share
44.9%
xG for / against
4.07 / 4.98
All observed combinations

Winnipeg Jets

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

135:56 together · 10 games

xG share50.6%
Corsi for / against
159 / 130
Fenwick for / against
120 / 104
Corsi share
55.0%
Fenwick share
53.6%
xG for / against
7.78 / 7.59
Defense pair

121:50 together · 10 games

xG share47.1%
Corsi for / against
114 / 112
Fenwick for / against
83 / 81
Corsi share
50.4%
Fenwick share
50.6%
xG for / against
4.74 / 5.31
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
150
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
31.3

Stuart Skinner

Winnipeg Jets · Last start: Oct 25

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
136
Save %
90.4
Goals allowed
13
Close-range shots %
38.2
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 11, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.20
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.24

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Winnipeg Jets

xG for / game
2.87
xG against / game
3.38
xG differential / game
-0.51

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 11, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
46.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.2
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Winnipeg Jets

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.6
Corsi share (%)
48.6
Fenwick share (%)
47.4
Faceoff win %
45.1
Penalties / game
2.9

Shots / game: 26.6 · Shooting: 9.0% · Avg distance: 32.0 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Winnipeg Jets WPG
16Points11
0.615Points %0.500
50Goals for27
41Goals against31
9Goal differential-4
W4Current streakL1
Road versus home
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR road
Metric
Winnipeg Jets WPG home
5Games6
3Wins2
7Points5
10Goal differential-3
Last 10 games
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Winnipeg Jets WPG
6-2-2Record4-4-2
14Points10
44Goals for24
34Goals against27
10Goal differential-3
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 8 wins
10 games reviewed
Winnipeg Jets WPG 2 wins
Total goals41 – 30
Goal differential +11 / -11
Goals per game4.1 / 3.0
Shots per game31.6 / 31.1
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 17, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
4 - 3 37 - 30 View
Jan 1, 2026
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 6 40 - 30 View
Dec 23, 2024
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 2 27 - 25 View
Oct 28, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
6 - 4 36 - 23 View
Jan 27, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
4 - 2 30 - 26 View
Jan 24, 2024
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
0 - 1 32 - 30 View
Jan 19, 2023
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
1 - 4 38 - 27 View
Oct 22, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
4 - 1 28 - 31 View
Mar 31, 2022
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 7 23 - 38 View
Dec 5, 2021
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
3 - 6 35 - 41 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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