Forward trio
89:05 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 82 / 95
- Fenwick for / against
- 62 / 74
- Corsi share
- 46.3%
- Fenwick share
- 45.6%
- xG for / against
- 3.82 / 5.02
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Winnipeg Jets prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 17, 2026
NHL matchup
Toronto Maple Leafs at Winnipeg Jets
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 17, 2026.
January 17, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 17. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
79:30 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 69 / 100
- Fenwick for / against
- 44 / 69
- Corsi share
- 40.8%
- Fenwick share
- 38.9%
- xG for / against
- 3.09 / 4.21
Winnipeg Jets
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
85:43 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 60 / 73
- Fenwick for / against
- 40 / 60
- Corsi share
- 45.1%
- Fenwick share
- 40.0%
- xG for / against
- 2.32 / 3.84
Defense pair
121:36 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 104 / 92
- Fenwick for / against
- 83 / 68
- Corsi share
- 53.1%
- Fenwick share
- 55.0%
- xG for / against
- 5.84 / 3.85
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Joseph Woll
Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Jan 15
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 153
- Save %
- 90.8
- Goals allowed
- 14
- Close-range shots %
- 26.1
Connor Hellebuyck
Winnipeg Jets · Last start: Jan 15
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 149
- Save %
- 88.6
- Goals allowed
- 17
- Close-range shots %
- 26.8
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
- xG for / game
- 2.85
- xG against / game
- 3.44
- xG differential / game
- -0.59
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Winnipeg Jets
- xG for / game
- 2.78
- xG against / game
- 2.87
- xG differential / game
- -0.09
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 53.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 43.4
- Fenwick share (%)
- 43.5
- Faceoff win %
- 55.5
- Penalties / game
- 3.5
Shots / game: 25.8 · Shooting: 14.0% · Avg distance: 34.6 ft
Winnipeg Jets
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 53.4
- Corsi share (%)
- 49.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.6
- Faceoff win %
- 49.0
- Penalties / game
- 2.8
Shots / game: 25.8 · Shooting: 13.6% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TOR
|
Metric |
WPG
|
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Points | 11 |
| 0.615 | Points % | 0.500 |
| 50 | Goals for | 27 |
| 41 | Goals against | 31 |
| 9 | Goal differential | -4 |
| W4 | Current streak | L1 |
Road versus home
|
TOR road
|
Metric |
WPG home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 6 |
| 3 | Wins | 2 |
| 7 | Points | 5 |
| 10 | Goal differential | -3 |
Last 10 games
|
TOR
|
Metric |
WPG
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-2-2 | Record | 4-4-2 |
| 14 | Points | 10 |
| 44 | Goals for | 24 |
| 34 | Goals against | 27 |
| 10 | Goal differential | -3 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TOR
7 wins
10
games reviewed
WPG
3 wins
Total goals39 – 31
Goal differential
+8
/
-8
Goals per game3.9 / 3.1
Shots per game31.5 / 30.5
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 |
Winnipeg Jets
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
5 - 6 | 40 - 30 | View |
| Dec 23, 2024 |
Winnipeg Jets
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
5 - 2 | 27 - 25 | View |
| Oct 28, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Winnipeg Jets
|
6 - 4 | 36 - 23 | View |
| Jan 27, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Winnipeg Jets
|
4 - 2 | 30 - 26 | View |
| Jan 24, 2024 |
Winnipeg Jets
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
0 - 1 | 32 - 30 | View |
| Jan 19, 2023 |
Winnipeg Jets
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
1 - 4 | 38 - 27 | View |
| Oct 22, 2022 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Winnipeg Jets
|
4 - 1 | 28 - 31 | View |
| Mar 31, 2022 |
Winnipeg Jets
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 7 | 23 - 38 | View |
| Dec 5, 2021 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Winnipeg Jets
|
3 - 6 | 35 - 41 | View |
| May 14, 2021 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Winnipeg Jets
|
2 - 4 | 36 - 24 | View |