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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Washington Capitals prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 4, 2027

NHL matchup

Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 4, 2027.

January 4, 2027 · 6:30 PM CST
Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

51.9% Model pick
at
Home

Washington Capitals

6-4-0

48.1%
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 51.9%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Away team

Toronto Maple Leafs

51.9%
Fair American -108
Fair decimal 1.93
Calculate value
Washington Capitals logo
Home team

Washington Capitals

48.1%
Fair American +108
Fair decimal 2.08
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 4, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 4. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

104:16 together · 10 games

xG share45.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 118
Fenwick for / against
71 / 87
Corsi share
42.4%
Fenwick share
44.9%
xG for / against
4.07 / 4.98
All observed combinations

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

41:39 together · 6 games

xG share62.6%
Corsi for / against
41 / 38
Fenwick for / against
32 / 27
Corsi share
51.9%
Fenwick share
54.2%
xG for / against
2.56 / 1.53
Defense pair

87:35 together · 10 games

xG share48.6%
Corsi for / against
78 / 105
Fenwick for / against
61 / 80
Corsi share
42.6%
Fenwick share
43.3%
xG for / against
4.29 / 4.54
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
150
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
31.3

Charlie Lindgren

Washington Capitals · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
79
Save %
88.6
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
25.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 4, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.20
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.24

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Washington Capitals

xG for / game
3.53
xG against / game
3.37
xG differential / game
0.16

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 4, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
46.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.2
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.8
Corsi share (%)
46.4
Fenwick share (%)
47.8
Faceoff win %
50.2
Penalties / game
4.4

Shots / game: 27.5 · Shooting: 12.4% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH
16Points12
0.615Points %0.600
50Goals for34
41Goals against32
9Goal differential2
W4Current streakW1
Road versus home
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR road
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH home
5Games7
3Wins5
7Points10
10Goal differential3
Last 10 games
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH
6-2-2Record6-4-0
14Points12
44Goals for34
34Goals against32
10Goal differential2
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Washington Capitals WSH 5 wins
Total goals30 – 29
Goal differential +1 / -1
Goals per game3.0 / 2.9
Shots per game27.8 / 27.5
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 8, 2026
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 0 20 - 21 View
Dec 18, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
0 - 4 22 - 29 View
Nov 28, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
2 - 4 22 - 34 View
Dec 28, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 2 32 - 37 View
Dec 6, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 1 26 - 21 View
Nov 13, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
4 - 3 34 - 27 View
Mar 28, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
1 - 5 24 - 48 View
Mar 20, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
7 - 3 29 - 21 View
Oct 24, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
4 - 1 17 - 38 View
Jan 29, 2023
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
1 - 5 24 - 27 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TOR WSH