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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vancouver Canucks prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 31, 2026

NHL matchup

Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 31, 2026.

October 31, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

57.9% Model pick
at
Home

Vancouver Canucks

2-10-1

42.1%
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 57.9%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Away team

Toronto Maple Leafs

57.9%
Fair American -138
Fair decimal 1.73
Calculate value
Vancouver Canucks logo
Home team

Vancouver Canucks

42.1%
Fair American +138
Fair decimal 2.38
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 31, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 31. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

104:16 together · 10 games

xG share45.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 118
Fenwick for / against
71 / 87
Corsi share
42.4%
Fenwick share
44.9%
xG for / against
4.07 / 4.98
All observed combinations

Vancouver Canucks

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

89:40 together · 10 games

xG share33.0%
Corsi for / against
62 / 102
Fenwick for / against
41 / 78
Corsi share
37.8%
Fenwick share
34.5%
xG for / against
2.98 / 6.05
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
150
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
31.3

Leevi Meriläinen

Vancouver Canucks · Last start: Oct 25

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
188
Save %
90.4
Goals allowed
18
Close-range shots %
37.8
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 31, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.20
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.24

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Vancouver Canucks

xG for / game
2.09
xG against / game
4.36
xG differential / game
-2.26

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 31, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
46.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.2
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Vancouver Canucks

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
43.8
Corsi share (%)
40.6
Fenwick share (%)
39.1
Faceoff win %
47.3
Penalties / game
3.8

Shots / game: 18.7 · Shooting: 10.7% · Avg distance: 32.3 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Vancouver Canucks VAN
16Points5
0.615Points %0.192
50Goals for37
41Goals against60
9Goal differential-23
W4Current streakL4
Road versus home
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR road
Metric
Vancouver Canucks VAN home
5Games6
3Wins1
7Points2
10Goal differential-8
Last 10 games
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Vancouver Canucks VAN
6-2-2Record0-9-1
14Points1
44Goals for20
34Goals against45
10Goal differential-25
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Vancouver Canucks VAN 6 wins
Total goals28 – 30
Goal differential -2 / +2
Goals per game2.8 / 3.0
Shots per game34.3 / 26.2
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 31, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
3 - 2 41 - 30 View
Jan 10, 2026
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
0 - 5 29 - 24 View
Feb 8, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
1 - 2 28 - 25 View
Jan 11, 2025
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 0 18 - 20 View
Jan 20, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
4 - 6 46 - 21 View
Nov 11, 2023
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 5 33 - 22 View
Mar 4, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
1 - 4 37 - 24 View
Nov 12, 2022
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 3 29 - 34 View
Mar 5, 2022
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
6 - 4 29 - 38 View
Feb 12, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
2 - 3 53 - 24 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TOR VAN