Away team
Toronto Maple Leafs
46.3%
Fair American
+116
Fair decimal
2.16
Toronto Maple Leafs vs St. Louis Blues prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 23, 2027
NHL matchup
Toronto Maple Leafs at St. Louis Blues
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 23, 2027.
January 23, 2027
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
St. Louis Blues at 53.7%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
St. Louis Blues
53.7%
Fair American
-116
Fair decimal
1.86
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 23, 2027.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 4-4
- Net units
- 0.65
- ROI
- 8.2%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 5-2
- Net units
- 4.60
- ROI
- 65.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 2-4
- Net units
- -2.55
- ROI
- -42.5%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Net units
- 0.60
- ROI
- 15.0%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Net units
- 1.70
- ROI
- 34.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 2-4
- Net units
- -2.49
- ROI
- -41.4%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 23. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
50:46 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 41 / 54
- Fenwick for / against
- 38 / 37
- Corsi share
- 43.2%
- Fenwick share
- 50.7%
- xG for / against
- 2.00 / 1.79
Defense pair
111:53 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 90 / 124
- Fenwick for / against
- 74 / 92
- Corsi share
- 42.1%
- Fenwick share
- 44.6%
- xG for / against
- 4.40 / 5.24
St. Louis Blues
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
108:25 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 99 / 102
- Fenwick for / against
- 70 / 77
- Corsi share
- 49.3%
- Fenwick share
- 47.6%
- xG for / against
- 4.63 / 4.76
Defense pair
109:44 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 96 / 102
- Fenwick for / against
- 67 / 86
- Corsi share
- 48.5%
- Fenwick share
- 43.8%
- xG for / against
- 5.37 / 5.98
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected starter unavailable.
St. Louis Blues
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Sergei Bobrovsky
Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 26
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 142
- Save %
- 88.7
- Goals allowed
- 16
- Close-range shots %
- 25.4
Jordan Binnington
St. Louis Blues · Last start: Oct 27
4 / 4 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 103
- Save %
- 84.5
- Goals allowed
- 16
- Close-range shots %
- 35.0
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 23, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
- xG for / game
- 3.02
- xG against / game
- 3.38
- xG differential / game
- -0.36
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
St. Louis Blues
- xG for / game
- 3.12
- xG against / game
- 2.68
- xG differential / game
- 0.44
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 23, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 51.4
- Corsi share (%)
- 44.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 46.9
- Faceoff win %
- 52.8
- Penalties / game
- 4.9
Shots / game: 28.1 · Shooting: 14.6% · Avg distance: 34.0 ft
St. Louis Blues
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 57.0
- Corsi share (%)
- 51.6
- Fenwick share (%)
- 49.6
- Faceoff win %
- 51.5
- Penalties / game
- 2.8
Shots / game: 28.7 · Shooting: 10.5% · Avg distance: 30.9 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TOR
|
Metric |
STL
|
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Points | 11 |
| 0.571 | Points % | 0.458 |
| 52 | Goals for | 35 |
| 46 | Goals against | 37 |
| 6 | Goal differential | -2 |
| L1 | Current streak | L2 |
Road versus home
|
TOR road
|
Metric |
STL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 6 |
| 3 | Wins | 3 |
| 7 | Points | 7 |
| 7 | Goal differential | 0 |
Last 10 games
|
TOR
|
Metric |
STL
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-3-2 | Record | 4-5-1 |
| 12 | Points | 9 |
| 41 | Goals for | 30 |
| 35 | Goals against | 31 |
| 6 | Goal differential | -1 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TOR
5 wins
10
games reviewed
STL
5 wins
Total goals34 – 40
Goal differential
-6
/
+6
Goals per game3.4 / 4.0
Shots per game32.0 / 27.9
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
St. Louis Blues
|
1 - 5 | 13 - 38 | View |
| Nov 18, 2025 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
2 - 3 | 29 - 29 | View |
| Nov 2, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
St. Louis Blues
|
2 - 4 | 37 - 24 | View |
| Oct 24, 2024 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
5 - 1 | 27 - 41 | View |
| Feb 19, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
St. Louis Blues
|
4 - 2 | 29 - 21 | View |
| Feb 13, 2024 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
1 - 4 | 15 - 32 | View |
| Jan 3, 2023 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
6 - 5 | 32 - 25 | View |
| Dec 27, 2022 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
St. Louis Blues
|
5 - 4 | 37 - 34 | View |
| Feb 19, 2022 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
6 - 3 | 34 - 37 | View |
| Jan 15, 2022 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
St. Louis Blues
|
6 - 5 | 40 - 25 | View |