Forward trio
45:44 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 41 / 52
- Fenwick for / against
- 34 / 37
- Corsi share
- 44.1%
- Fenwick share
- 47.9%
- xG for / against
- 1.68 / 3.81
Toronto Maple Leafs vs St. Louis Blues prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 28, 2026
NHL matchup
Toronto Maple Leafs at St. Louis Blues
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 28, 2026.
March 28, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 28. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
74:53 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 45 / 70
- Fenwick for / against
- 32 / 56
- Corsi share
- 39.1%
- Fenwick share
- 36.4%
- xG for / against
- 2.57 / 3.91
St. Louis Blues
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
106:21 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 114 / 77
- Fenwick for / against
- 80 / 57
- Corsi share
- 59.7%
- Fenwick share
- 58.4%
- xG for / against
- 6.80 / 3.74
Defense pair
136:50 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 100 / 122
- Fenwick for / against
- 67 / 96
- Corsi share
- 45.0%
- Fenwick share
- 41.1%
- xG for / against
- 5.43 / 6.68
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Joseph Woll
Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Mar 25
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 190
- Save %
- 91.1
- Goals allowed
- 17
- Close-range shots %
- 27.9
Joel Hofer
St. Louis Blues · Last start: Mar 26
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 165
- Save %
- 95.2
- Goals allowed
- 8
- Close-range shots %
- 29.1
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 28, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
- xG for / game
- 2.61
- xG against / game
- 4.04
- xG differential / game
- -1.44
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
St. Louis Blues
- xG for / game
- 3.06
- xG against / game
- 3.11
- xG differential / game
- -0.05
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 28, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 46.0
- Corsi share (%)
- 39.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 38.8
- Faceoff win %
- 49.2
- Penalties / game
- 6.0
Shots / game: 23.9 · Shooting: 12.1% · Avg distance: 34.4 ft
St. Louis Blues
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 51.4
- Corsi share (%)
- 48.5
- Fenwick share (%)
- 47.0
- Faceoff win %
- 45.2
- Penalties / game
- 4.2
Shots / game: 24.2 · Shooting: 11.2% · Avg distance: 32.6 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TOR
|
Metric |
STL
|
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Points | 11 |
| 0.571 | Points % | 0.500 |
| 52 | Goals for | 35 |
| 46 | Goals against | 35 |
| 6 | Goal differential | 0 |
| L1 | Current streak | L1 |
Road versus home
|
TOR road
|
Metric |
STL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 5 |
| 3 | Wins | 3 |
| 7 | Points | 7 |
| 7 | Goal differential | 2 |
Last 10 games
|
TOR
|
Metric |
STL
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-3-2 | Record | 4-5-1 |
| 12 | Points | 9 |
| 41 | Goals for | 31 |
| 35 | Goals against | 35 |
| 6 | Goal differential | -4 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TOR
6 wins
10
games reviewed
STL
4 wins
Total goals38 – 37
Goal differential
+1
/
-1
Goals per game3.8 / 3.7
Shots per game33.4 / 26.9
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2025 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
2 - 3 | 29 - 29 | View |
| Nov 2, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
St. Louis Blues
|
2 - 4 | 37 - 24 | View |
| Oct 24, 2024 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
5 - 1 | 27 - 41 | View |
| Feb 19, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
St. Louis Blues
|
4 - 2 | 29 - 21 | View |
| Feb 13, 2024 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
1 - 4 | 15 - 32 | View |
| Jan 3, 2023 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
6 - 5 | 32 - 25 | View |
| Dec 27, 2022 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
St. Louis Blues
|
5 - 4 | 37 - 34 | View |
| Feb 19, 2022 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
6 - 3 | 34 - 37 | View |
| Jan 15, 2022 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
St. Louis Blues
|
6 - 5 | 40 - 25 | View |
| Dec 7, 2019 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
St. Louis Blues
|
5 - 2 | 27 - 28 | View |