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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Seattle Kraken prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 28, 2026

NHL matchup

Toronto Maple Leafs at Seattle Kraken

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 28, 2026.

October 28, 2026 · 9:00 PM CST
Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

55.6% Model pick
at
Home

Seattle Kraken

7-4-1

44.4%
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 55.6%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Away team

Toronto Maple Leafs

55.6%
Fair American -125
Fair decimal 1.8
Calculate value
Seattle Kraken logo
Home team

Seattle Kraken

44.4%
Fair American +125
Fair decimal 2.25
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 28, 2026.

Seattle Kraken

All Model Picks

Bets
5
Record
4-1
Net units
2.88
ROI
57.7%

Value Picks

Bets
10
Record
5-5
Net units
1.57
ROI
15.7%

Market Favourite

Bets
2
Record
2-0
Net units
1.59
ROI
79.6%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 28. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

104:16 together · 10 games

xG share45.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 118
Fenwick for / against
71 / 87
Corsi share
42.4%
Fenwick share
44.9%
xG for / against
4.07 / 4.98
All observed combinations

Seattle Kraken

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

81:54 together · 10 games

xG share56.9%
Corsi for / against
86 / 90
Fenwick for / against
62 / 61
Corsi share
48.9%
Fenwick share
50.4%
xG for / against
4.48 / 3.40
Defense pair

152:33 together · 10 games

xG share37.4%
Corsi for / against
117 / 221
Fenwick for / against
81 / 162
Corsi share
34.6%
Fenwick share
33.3%
xG for / against
5.10 / 8.52
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
150
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
31.3

Joey Daccord

Seattle Kraken · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
162
Save %
87.0
Goals allowed
21
Close-range shots %
34.0
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 28, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.20
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.24

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Seattle Kraken

xG for / game
2.74
xG against / game
3.63
xG differential / game
-0.89

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 28, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
46.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.2
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Seattle Kraken

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
51.3
Corsi share (%)
42.3
Fenwick share (%)
43.4
Faceoff win %
52.5
Penalties / game
3.6

Shots / game: 26.2 · Shooting: 13.7% · Avg distance: 34.6 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Seattle Kraken SEA
16Points15
0.615Points %0.625
50Goals for45
41Goals against42
9Goal differential3
W4Current streakL1
Road versus home
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR road
Metric
Seattle Kraken SEA home
5Games5
3Wins3
7Points6
10Goal differential0
Last 10 games
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Seattle Kraken SEA
6-2-2Record6-3-1
14Points13
44Goals for38
34Goals against38
10Goal differential0
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 7 wins
10 games reviewed
Seattle Kraken SEA 3 wins
Total goals37 – 27
Goal differential +10 / -10
Goals per game3.7 / 2.7
Shots per game29.2 / 26.7
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 29, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken
2 - 5 31 - 22 View
Oct 18, 2025
Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 3 28 - 30 View
Feb 6, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken
3 - 1 30 - 27 View
Oct 31, 2024
Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
1 - 4 25 - 30 View
Jan 21, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken
3 - 1 26 - 17 View
Nov 30, 2023
Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 4 40 - 28 View
Feb 26, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken
5 - 1 33 - 27 View
Jan 5, 2023
Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 1 26 - 27 View
Mar 8, 2022
Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 6 30 - 32 View
Feb 14, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken
6 - 2 25 - 25 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TOR SEA