Skip to content

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Pittsburgh Penguins prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 28, 2026

NHL matchup

Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 28, 2026.

November 28, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

54.0% Model pick
at
Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

5-6-1

46.0%
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 54.0%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Away team

Toronto Maple Leafs

54.0%
Fair American -117
Fair decimal 1.85
Calculate value
Pittsburgh Penguins logo
Home team

Pittsburgh Penguins

46.0%
Fair American +117
Fair decimal 2.17
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 28, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 28. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

104:16 together · 10 games

xG share45.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 118
Fenwick for / against
71 / 87
Corsi share
42.4%
Fenwick share
44.9%
xG for / against
4.07 / 4.98
All observed combinations

Pittsburgh Penguins

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

62:36 together · 7 games

xG share45.1%
Corsi for / against
62 / 60
Fenwick for / against
44 / 50
Corsi share
50.8%
Fenwick share
46.8%
xG for / against
3.72 / 4.52
Defense pair

83:42 together · 10 games

xG share41.7%
Corsi for / against
96 / 88
Fenwick for / against
70 / 70
Corsi share
52.2%
Fenwick share
50.0%
xG for / against
3.95 / 5.54
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
150
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
31.3

Arturs Silovs

Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
138
Save %
90.6
Goals allowed
13
Close-range shots %
32.6
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 28, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.20
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.24

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Pittsburgh Penguins

xG for / game
3.15
xG against / game
3.33
xG differential / game
-0.18

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 28, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
46.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.2
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Pittsburgh Penguins

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
57.9
Corsi share (%)
50.9
Fenwick share (%)
50.1
Faceoff win %
46.6
Penalties / game
2.9

Shots / game: 26.5 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
16Points11
0.615Points %0.458
50Goals for40
41Goals against40
9Goal differential0
W4Current streakW2
Road versus home
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR road
Metric
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT home
5Games5
3Wins4
7Points8
10Goal differential6
Last 10 games
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
6-2-2Record3-6-1
14Points7
44Goals for27
34Goals against35
10Goal differential-8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 8 wins
10 games reviewed
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT 2 wins
Total goals45 – 26
Goal differential +19 / -19
Goals per game4.5 / 2.6
Shots per game29.9 / 32.2
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Dec 23, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 6 32 - 31 View
Nov 29, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
7 - 2 23 - 35 View
Nov 3, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 4 37 - 20 View
Mar 2, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
6 - 5 33 - 34 View
Dec 7, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
2 - 5 27 - 29 View
Oct 12, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 4 23 - 33 View
Apr 8, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 3 33 - 23 View
Dec 16, 2023
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
0 - 7 38 - 35 View
Nov 25, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
2 - 3 33 - 35 View
Nov 26, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
4 - 1 41 - 26 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TOR PIT