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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 20, 2027

NHL matchup

Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 20, 2027.

January 20, 2027 · 6:30 PM CST
Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-5-2

53.8% Model pick
at
Home

Ottawa Senators

8-5-0

46.2%
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 53.8%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Away team

Toronto Maple Leafs

53.8%
Fair American -116
Fair decimal 1.86
Calculate value
Ottawa Senators logo
Home team

Ottawa Senators

46.2%
Fair American +116
Fair decimal 2.16
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 20, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 20. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

111:53 together · 10 games

xG share45.6%
Corsi for / against
90 / 124
Fenwick for / against
74 / 92
Corsi share
42.1%
Fenwick share
44.6%
xG for / against
4.40 / 5.24
All observed combinations

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

39:16 together · 9 games

xG share42.5%
Corsi for / against
34 / 43
Fenwick for / against
21 / 39
Corsi share
44.2%
Fenwick share
35.0%
xG for / against
1.84 / 2.49
Defense pair

81:43 together · 9 games

xG share62.9%
Corsi for / against
98 / 76
Fenwick for / against
67 / 46
Corsi share
56.3%
Fenwick share
59.3%
xG for / against
4.60 / 2.72
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Sergei Bobrovsky

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 26

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
142
Save %
88.7
Goals allowed
16
Close-range shots %
25.4

Jonas Johansson

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Oct 27

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
56
Save %
89.3
Goals allowed
6
Close-range shots %
33.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 20, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.02
xG against / game
3.38
xG differential / game
-0.36

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
2.85
xG against / game
2.73
xG differential / game
0.12

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 20, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
51.4
Corsi share (%)
44.1
Fenwick share (%)
46.9
Faceoff win %
52.8
Penalties / game
4.9

Shots / game: 28.1 · Shooting: 14.6% · Avg distance: 34.0 ft

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.2
Corsi share (%)
49.4
Fenwick share (%)
48.9
Faceoff win %
52.4
Penalties / game
4.3

Shots / game: 25.3 · Shooting: 10.7% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
16Points16
0.571Points %0.615
52Goals for39
46Goals against38
6Goal differential1
L1Current streakL1
Road versus home
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR road
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT home
6Games7
3Wins5
7Points10
7Goal differential1
Last 10 games
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
5-3-2Record6-4-0
12Points12
41Goals for29
35Goals against30
6Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 1 wins
10 games reviewed
Ottawa Senators OTT 9 wins
Total goals22 – 39
Goal differential -17 / +17
Goals per game2.2 / 3.9
Shots per game26.9 / 33.2
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 3, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 2 29 - 29 View
Apr 15, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 3 20 - 38 View
Mar 21, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
2 - 5 14 - 43 View
Feb 28, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 2 40 - 23 View
Dec 27, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 7 31 - 33 View
Mar 15, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 2 25 - 23 View
Jan 25, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 2 29 - 23 View
Nov 12, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 0 41 - 27 View
Feb 10, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
3 - 5 35 - 32 View
Dec 27, 2023
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 2 30 - 36 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TOR OTT