Forward trio
46:09 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 42 / 54
- Fenwick for / against
- 35 / 39
- Corsi share
- 43.8%
- Fenwick share
- 47.3%
- xG for / against
- 1.72 / 3.88
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 21, 2026
NHL matchup
Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 21, 2026.
March 21, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 21. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
86:08 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 82 / 115
- Fenwick for / against
- 58 / 83
- Corsi share
- 41.6%
- Fenwick share
- 41.1%
- xG for / against
- 3.44 / 5.83
Ottawa Senators
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
94:36 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 87 / 87
- Fenwick for / against
- 65 / 60
- Corsi share
- 50.0%
- Fenwick share
- 52.0%
- xG for / against
- 4.31 / 3.64
Defense pair
128:53 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 125 / 85
- Fenwick for / against
- 87 / 68
- Corsi share
- 59.5%
- Fenwick share
- 56.1%
- xG for / against
- 6.34 / 4.50
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Joseph Woll
Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Mar 20
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 175
- Save %
- 91.4
- Goals allowed
- 15
- Close-range shots %
- 29.7
James Reimer
Ottawa Senators · Last start: Mar 19
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 88
- Save %
- 89.8
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 27.3
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 21, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
- xG for / game
- 2.58
- xG against / game
- 4.09
- xG differential / game
- -1.51
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Ottawa Senators
- xG for / game
- 3.63
- xG against / game
- 2.54
- xG differential / game
- 1.09
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 21, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 49.1
- Corsi share (%)
- 40.7
- Fenwick share (%)
- 41.9
- Faceoff win %
- 53.6
- Penalties / game
- 5.2
Shots / game: 26.2 · Shooting: 9.9% · Avg distance: 34.2 ft
Ottawa Senators
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 64.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 56.5
- Fenwick share (%)
- 56.1
- Faceoff win %
- 51.8
- Penalties / game
- 3.9
Shots / game: 30.8 · Shooting: 12.0% · Avg distance: 31.1 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TOR
|
Metric |
OTT
|
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Points | 16 |
| 0.615 | Points % | 0.667 |
| 50 | Goals for | 38 |
| 41 | Goals against | 34 |
| 9 | Goal differential | 4 |
| W4 | Current streak | W1 |
Road versus home
|
TOR road
|
Metric |
OTT home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 7 |
| 3 | Wins | 5 |
| 7 | Points | 10 |
| 10 | Goal differential | 1 |
Last 10 games
|
TOR
|
Metric |
OTT
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-2-2 | Record | 6-4-0 |
| 14 | Points | 12 |
| 44 | Goals for | 31 |
| 34 | Goals against | 31 |
| 10 | Goal differential | 0 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TOR
3 wins
10
games reviewed
OTT
7 wins
Total goals27 – 37
Goal differential
-10
/
+10
Goals per game2.7 / 3.7
Shots per game27.8 / 32.5
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
5 - 2 | 40 - 23 | View |
| Dec 27, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
5 - 7 | 31 - 33 | View |
| Mar 15, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
4 - 2 | 25 - 23 | View |
| Jan 25, 2025 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Ottawa Senators
|
1 - 2 | 29 - 23 | View |
| Nov 12, 2024 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 0 | 41 - 27 | View |
| Feb 10, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Ottawa Senators
|
3 - 5 | 35 - 32 | View |
| Dec 27, 2023 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
4 - 2 | 30 - 36 | View |
| Dec 7, 2023 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Ottawa Senators
|
4 - 3 | 22 - 41 | View |
| Nov 8, 2023 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
6 - 3 | 31 - 30 | View |
| Apr 1, 2023 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Ottawa Senators
|
3 - 0 | 20 - 31 | View |