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Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Rangers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 18, 2027

NHL matchup

Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 18, 2027.

March 18, 2027 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

47.6%
at
Home

New York Rangers

7-5-1

52.4% Model pick
Model V2 pick: New York Rangers at 52.4%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Away team

Toronto Maple Leafs

47.6%
Fair American +110
Fair decimal 2.1
Calculate value
New York Rangers logo
Home team

New York Rangers

52.4%
Fair American -110
Fair decimal 1.91
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 18, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 18. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

104:16 together · 10 games

xG share45.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 118
Fenwick for / against
71 / 87
Corsi share
42.4%
Fenwick share
44.9%
xG for / against
4.07 / 4.98
All observed combinations

New York Rangers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

141:07 together · 10 games

xG share60.5%
Corsi for / against
134 / 153
Fenwick for / against
100 / 95
Corsi share
46.7%
Fenwick share
51.3%
xG for / against
7.85 / 5.14
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
150
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
31.3

Dylan Garand

New York Rangers · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
130
Save %
86.9
Goals allowed
17
Close-range shots %
30.8
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 18, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.20
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.24

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

New York Rangers

xG for / game
3.35
xG against / game
2.98
xG differential / game
0.37

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 18, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
46.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.2
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

New York Rangers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.6
Corsi share (%)
48.5
Fenwick share (%)
47.8
Faceoff win %
53.7
Penalties / game
3.9

Shots / game: 24.9 · Shooting: 13.7% · Avg distance: 29.6 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
New York Rangers NYR
16Points15
0.615Points %0.577
50Goals for41
41Goals against36
9Goal differential5
W4Current streakL2
Road versus home
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR road
Metric
New York Rangers NYR home
5Games6
3Wins6
7Points12
10Goal differential19
Last 10 games
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
New York Rangers NYR
6-2-2Record5-4-1
14Points11
44Goals for34
34Goals against32
10Goal differential2
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 7 wins
10 games reviewed
New York Rangers NYR 3 wins
Total goals34 – 34
Goal differential 0 / 0
Goals per game3.4 / 3.4
Shots per game28.4 / 31.7
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 22, 2026
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 5 25 - 35 View
Mar 25, 2026
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 4 43 - 18 View
Mar 5, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers New York Rangers
2 - 6 31 - 24 View
Oct 16, 2025
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
1 - 2 29 - 24 View
Mar 20, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers New York Rangers
4 - 3 28 - 30 View
Feb 28, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers New York Rangers
3 - 2 16 - 35 View
Oct 19, 2024
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 1 29 - 35 View
Mar 2, 2024
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 4 35 - 34 View
Dec 19, 2023
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 2 36 - 33 View
Dec 12, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers New York Rangers
7 - 3 30 - 31 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TOR NYR