Forward trio
72:51 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 79 / 72
- Fenwick for / against
- 60 / 51
- Corsi share
- 52.3%
- Fenwick share
- 54.1%
- xG for / against
- 4.21 / 3.60
Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Rangers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 5, 2026
NHL matchup
Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 5, 2026.
March 5, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 5. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
88:05 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 76 / 86
- Fenwick for / against
- 59 / 66
- Corsi share
- 46.9%
- Fenwick share
- 47.2%
- xG for / against
- 3.55 / 3.40
New York Rangers
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
117:04 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 119 / 113
- Fenwick for / against
- 92 / 86
- Corsi share
- 51.3%
- Fenwick share
- 51.7%
- xG for / against
- 5.67 / 4.53
Defense pair
108:54 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 75 / 104
- Fenwick for / against
- 45 / 82
- Corsi share
- 41.9%
- Fenwick share
- 35.4%
- xG for / against
- 2.36 / 4.36
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Anthony Stolarz
Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Mar 4
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 156
- Save %
- 92.9
- Goals allowed
- 11
- Close-range shots %
- 34.6
Igor Shesterkin
New York Rangers · Last start: Mar 2
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 133
- Save %
- 91.7
- Goals allowed
- 11
- Close-range shots %
- 30.1
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
- xG for / game
- 3.19
- xG against / game
- 3.50
- xG differential / game
- -0.30
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
New York Rangers
- xG for / game
- 2.56
- xG against / game
- 3.27
- xG differential / game
- -0.71
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 57.1
- Corsi share (%)
- 47.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 47.3
- Faceoff win %
- 53.6
- Penalties / game
- 3.2
Shots / game: 28.9 · Shooting: 9.3% · Avg distance: 32.8 ft
New York Rangers
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 54.7
- Corsi share (%)
- 47.3
- Fenwick share (%)
- 45.8
- Faceoff win %
- 57.9
- Penalties / game
- 4.0
Shots / game: 24.8 · Shooting: 9.7% · Avg distance: 33.1 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TOR
|
Metric |
NYR
|
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Points | 15 |
| 0.571 | Points % | 0.536 |
| 52 | Goals for | 44 |
| 46 | Goals against | 42 |
| 6 | Goal differential | 2 |
| L1 | Current streak | L3 |
Road versus home
|
TOR road
|
Metric |
NYR home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 7 |
| 3 | Wins | 6 |
| 7 | Points | 12 |
| 7 | Goal differential | 16 |
Last 10 games
|
TOR
|
Metric |
NYR
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-3-2 | Record | 4-5-1 |
| 12 | Points | 9 |
| 41 | Goals for | 33 |
| 35 | Goals against | 36 |
| 6 | Goal differential | -3 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TOR
7 wins
10
games reviewed
NYR
3 wins
Total goals30 – 28
Goal differential
+2
/
-2
Goals per game3.0 / 2.8
Shots per game27.9 / 29.8
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 |
New York Rangers
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
1 - 2 | 29 - 24 | View |
| Mar 20, 2025 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
New York Rangers
|
4 - 3 | 28 - 30 | View |
| Feb 28, 2025 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
New York Rangers
|
3 - 2 | 16 - 35 | View |
| Oct 19, 2024 |
New York Rangers
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
4 - 1 | 29 - 35 | View |
| Mar 2, 2024 |
New York Rangers
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 4 | 35 - 34 | View |
| Dec 19, 2023 |
New York Rangers
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
5 - 2 | 36 - 33 | View |
| Dec 12, 2023 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
New York Rangers
|
7 - 3 | 30 - 31 | View |
| Apr 13, 2023 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
New York Rangers
|
3 - 2 | 21 - 24 | View |
| Jan 25, 2023 |
New York Rangers
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
2 - 3 | 29 - 35 | View |
| Dec 15, 2022 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
New York Rangers
|
1 - 3 | 23 - 20 | View |