Away team
Toronto Maple Leafs
48.5%
Fair American
+106
Fair decimal
2.06
Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 23, 2026
NHL matchup
Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 23, 2026.
November 23, 2026
· 6:30 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
New York Islanders at 51.5%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
New York Islanders
51.5%
Fair American
-106
Fair decimal
1.94
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 23, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 4-4
- Net units
- 0.65
- ROI
- 8.2%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 5-2
- Net units
- 4.60
- ROI
- 65.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 2-4
- Net units
- -2.55
- ROI
- -42.5%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Net units
- -0.28
- ROI
- -5.6%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 2-5
- Net units
- -3.13
- ROI
- -44.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 3-0
- Net units
- 1.72
- ROI
- 57.4%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 23. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Toronto Maple Leafs
This selection is unavailable until complete validated shift records cover every selected game.
All observed combinationsNew York Islanders
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
54:55 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 51 / 56
- Fenwick for / against
- 37 / 43
- Corsi share
- 47.7%
- Fenwick share
- 46.3%
- xG for / against
- 2.96 / 3.35
Defense pair
121:23 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 126 / 86
- Fenwick for / against
- 86 / 63
- Corsi share
- 59.4%
- Fenwick share
- 57.7%
- xG for / against
- 5.72 / 4.44
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected starter unavailable.
New York Islanders
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Sergei Bobrovsky
Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 26
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 142
- Save %
- 88.7
- Goals allowed
- 16
- Close-range shots %
- 25.4
Ilya Sorokin
New York Islanders · Last start: Oct 25
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 135
- Save %
- 88.9
- Goals allowed
- 15
- Close-range shots %
- 28.1
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 23, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
- xG for / game
- 3.03
- xG against / game
- 3.38
- xG differential / game
- -0.35
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
New York Islanders
- xG for / game
- 2.97
- xG against / game
- 3.30
- xG differential / game
- -0.33
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 23, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 51.3
- Corsi share (%)
- 44.0
- Fenwick share (%)
- 46.7
- Faceoff win %
- 52.7
- Penalties / game
- 4.9
Shots / game: 28.1 · Shooting: 14.6% · Avg distance: 34.1 ft
New York Islanders
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 54.0
- Corsi share (%)
- 49.2
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.7
- Faceoff win %
- 56.0
- Penalties / game
- 4.5
Shots / game: 25.9 · Shooting: 12.0% · Avg distance: 33.5 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TOR
|
Metric |
NYI
|
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Points | 12 |
| 0.571 | Points % | 0.545 |
| 52 | Goals for | 32 |
| 46 | Goals against | 29 |
| 6 | Goal differential | 3 |
| L1 | Current streak | L1 |
Road versus home
|
TOR road
|
Metric |
NYI home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 6 |
| 3 | Wins | 4 |
| 7 | Points | 9 |
| 7 | Goal differential | 8 |
Last 10 games
|
TOR
|
Metric |
NYI
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-3-2 | Record | 5-3-2 |
| 12 | Points | 12 |
| 41 | Goals for | 31 |
| 35 | Goals against | 27 |
| 6 | Goal differential | 4 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TOR
3 wins
10
games reviewed
NYI
7 wins
Total goals23 – 32
Goal differential
-9
/
+9
Goals per game2.3 / 3.2
Shots per game27.5 / 30.7
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 |
New York Islanders
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
4 - 1 | 20 - 29 | View |
| Sep 30, 2026 |
New York Islanders
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
1 - 2 | 27 - 26 | View |
| Apr 9, 2026 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
New York Islanders
|
3 - 5 | 16 - 44 | View |
| Mar 17, 2026 |
New York Islanders
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 1 | 34 - 27 | View |
| Jan 3, 2026 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
New York Islanders
|
3 - 4 | 21 - 25 | View |
| Jan 2, 2025 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
New York Islanders
|
2 - 1 | 31 - 33 | View |
| Dec 31, 2024 |
New York Islanders
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
1 - 3 | 31 - 25 | View |
| Dec 21, 2024 |
New York Islanders
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
6 - 3 | 34 - 29 | View |
| Feb 5, 2024 |
New York Islanders
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 2 | 29 - 36 | View |
| Jan 11, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
New York Islanders
|
3 - 4 | 35 - 30 | View |