Forward trio
75:53 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 81 / 74
- Fenwick for / against
- 61 / 52
- Corsi share
- 52.3%
- Fenwick share
- 54.0%
- xG for / against
- 4.31 / 3.75
Toronto Maple Leafs vs New Jersey Devils prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 4, 2026
NHL matchup
Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 4, 2026.
March 4, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 4. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
79:10 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 68 / 70
- Fenwick for / against
- 53 / 50
- Corsi share
- 49.3%
- Fenwick share
- 51.5%
- xG for / against
- 2.91 / 2.47
New Jersey Devils
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
42:47 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 38 / 44
- Fenwick for / against
- 33 / 29
- Corsi share
- 46.3%
- Fenwick share
- 53.2%
- xG for / against
- 3.02 / 1.89
Defense pair
92:29 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 88 / 81
- Fenwick for / against
- 67 / 59
- Corsi share
- 52.1%
- Fenwick share
- 53.2%
- xG for / against
- 3.80 / 4.00
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Anthony Stolarz
Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Mar 2
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 130
- Save %
- 90.8
- Goals allowed
- 12
- Close-range shots %
- 29.2
Jacob Markstrom
New Jersey Devils · Last start: Mar 3
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 137
- Save %
- 93.4
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 32.8
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 4, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
- xG for / game
- 3.19
- xG against / game
- 3.32
- xG differential / game
- -0.14
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
New Jersey Devils
- xG for / game
- 3.08
- xG against / game
- 2.73
- xG differential / game
- 0.34
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 4, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 58.1
- Corsi share (%)
- 48.0
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.8
- Faceoff win %
- 54.0
- Penalties / game
- 3.1
Shots / game: 29.5 · Shooting: 8.5% · Avg distance: 33.0 ft
New Jersey Devils
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 61.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 53.7
- Fenwick share (%)
- 53.4
- Faceoff win %
- 51.8
- Penalties / game
- 3.3
Shots / game: 29.2 · Shooting: 6.8% · Avg distance: 34.3 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TOR
|
Metric |
NJD
|
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Points | 16 |
| 0.533 | Points % | 0.615 |
| 56 | Goals for | 43 |
| 51 | Goals against | 38 |
| 5 | Goal differential | 5 |
| L2 | Current streak | L1 |
Road versus home
|
TOR road
|
Metric |
NJD home
|
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Games | 8 |
| 3 | Wins | 6 |
| 7 | Points | 12 |
| 6 | Goal differential | 11 |
Last 10 games
|
TOR
|
Metric |
NJD
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-4-1 | Record | 7-3-0 |
| 11 | Points | 14 |
| 42 | Goals for | 37 |
| 36 | Goals against | 25 |
| 6 | Goal differential | 12 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TOR
7 wins
10
games reviewed
NJD
3 wins
Total goals35 – 29
Goal differential
+6
/
-6
Goals per game3.5 / 2.9
Shots per game29.6 / 28.7
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2025 |
New Jersey Devils
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
0 - 4 | 33 - 30 | View |
| Oct 21, 2025 |
New Jersey Devils
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
5 - 2 | 35 - 25 | View |
| Jan 16, 2025 |
New Jersey Devils
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 4 | 24 - 41 | View |
| Dec 10, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
New Jersey Devils
|
2 - 1 | 17 - 39 | View |
| Oct 10, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
New Jersey Devils
|
4 - 2 | 22 - 23 | View |
| Apr 11, 2024 |
New Jersey Devils
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
6 - 5 | 20 - 32 | View |
| Apr 9, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
New Jersey Devils
|
5 - 2 | 39 - 20 | View |
| Mar 26, 2024 |
New Jersey Devils
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
6 - 3 | 25 - 45 | View |
| Mar 7, 2023 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
New Jersey Devils
|
4 - 3 | 25 - 33 | View |
| Nov 23, 2022 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
New Jersey Devils
|
2 - 1 | 20 - 35 | View |