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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Montréal Canadiens prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 22, 2027

NHL matchup

Toronto Maple Leafs at Montréal Canadiens

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 22, 2027.

March 22, 2027 · 6:30 PM CST
Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

47.5%
at
Home

Montréal Canadiens

6-3-2

52.5% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Montréal Canadiens at 52.5%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Away team

Toronto Maple Leafs

47.5%
Fair American +111
Fair decimal 2.11
Calculate value
Montréal Canadiens logo
Home team

Montréal Canadiens

52.5%
Fair American -111
Fair decimal 1.9
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 22, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 22. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

104:16 together · 10 games

xG share45.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 118
Fenwick for / against
71 / 87
Corsi share
42.4%
Fenwick share
44.9%
xG for / against
4.07 / 4.98
All observed combinations

Montréal Canadiens

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

108:21 together · 10 games

xG share62.2%
Corsi for / against
165 / 82
Fenwick for / against
127 / 61
Corsi share
66.8%
Fenwick share
67.6%
xG for / against
7.88 / 4.78
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
150
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
31.3

Jacob Fowler

Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Oct 25

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
127
Save %
93.7
Goals allowed
8
Close-range shots %
27.6
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 22, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.20
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.24

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Montréal Canadiens

xG for / game
3.47
xG against / game
3.11
xG differential / game
0.36

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 22, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
46.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.2
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Montréal Canadiens

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
62.6
Corsi share (%)
54.2
Fenwick share (%)
54.5
Faceoff win %
52.8
Penalties / game
5.5

Shots / game: 29.2 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 33.2 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Montréal Canadiens MTL
16Points14
0.615Points %0.636
50Goals for36
41Goals against36
9Goal differential0
W4Current streakW2
Road versus home
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR road
Metric
Montréal Canadiens MTL home
5Games6
3Wins3
7Points7
10Goal differential-3
Last 10 games
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Montréal Canadiens MTL
6-2-2Record5-3-2
14Points12
44Goals for33
34Goals against34
10Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Montréal Canadiens MTL 5 wins
Total goals27 – 22
Goal differential +5 / -5
Goals per game2.7 / 2.2
Shots per game29.6 / 27.5
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Sep 29, 2026
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 2 24 - 28 View
Mar 10, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
1 - 3 18 - 33 View
Dec 6, 2025
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 1 34 - 23 View
Nov 22, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
2 - 5 26 - 29 View
Oct 8, 2025
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 5 31 - 27 View
Apr 12, 2025
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
0 - 1 15 - 35 View
Jan 18, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
7 - 3 34 - 35 View
Nov 9, 2024
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
1 - 4 21 - 27 View
Oct 9, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
0 - 1 48 - 27 View
Apr 6, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
4 - 2 30 - 26 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TOR MTL