Away team
Toronto Maple Leafs
47.5%
Fair American
+111
Fair decimal
2.11
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Montréal Canadiens prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 26, 2026
NHL matchup
Toronto Maple Leafs at Montréal Canadiens
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 26, 2026.
December 26, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Montréal Canadiens at 52.5%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Montréal Canadiens
52.5%
Fair American
-111
Fair decimal
1.9
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 26, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 4-5
- Net units
- -0.35
- ROI
- -3.9%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 5-2
- Net units
- 4.60
- ROI
- 65.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 2-5
- Net units
- -3.55
- ROI
- -50.7%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 6-1
- Net units
- 3.39
- ROI
- 48.4%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 3-1
- Net units
- 2.26
- ROI
- 56.4%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 6-3
- Net units
- 1.39
- ROI
- 15.4%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 26. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
50:28 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 41 / 54
- Fenwick for / against
- 38 / 37
- Corsi share
- 43.2%
- Fenwick share
- 50.7%
- xG for / against
- 2.00 / 1.79
Defense pair
123:00 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 99 / 131
- Fenwick for / against
- 81 / 99
- Corsi share
- 43.0%
- Fenwick share
- 45.0%
- xG for / against
- 4.51 / 5.69
Montréal Canadiens
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
91:42 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 109 / 50
- Fenwick for / against
- 77 / 40
- Corsi share
- 68.6%
- Fenwick share
- 65.8%
- xG for / against
- 5.47 / 2.01
Defense pair
118:56 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 172 / 93
- Fenwick for / against
- 132 / 71
- Corsi share
- 64.9%
- Fenwick share
- 65.0%
- xG for / against
- 8.61 / 5.53
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected starter unavailable.
Montréal Canadiens
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Sergei Bobrovsky
Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 28
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 124
- Save %
- 87.1
- Goals allowed
- 16
- Close-range shots %
- 27.4
Jakub Dobes
Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Oct 29
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 135
- Save %
- 83.7
- Goals allowed
- 22
- Close-range shots %
- 34.8
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 26, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
- xG for / game
- 2.93
- xG against / game
- 3.13
- xG differential / game
- -0.19
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Montréal Canadiens
- xG for / game
- 3.46
- xG against / game
- 3.03
- xG differential / game
- 0.43
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 26, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 51.0
- Corsi share (%)
- 45.5
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.7
- Faceoff win %
- 52.0
- Penalties / game
- 5.0
Shots / game: 27.9 · Shooting: 15.1% · Avg distance: 34.9 ft
Montréal Canadiens
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 61.3
- Corsi share (%)
- 53.8
- Fenwick share (%)
- 54.2
- Faceoff win %
- 50.3
- Penalties / game
- 4.8
Shots / game: 28.9 · Shooting: 10.0% · Avg distance: 34.2 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TOR
|
Metric |
MTL
|
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Points | 18 |
| 0.533 | Points % | 0.692 |
| 56 | Goals for | 43 |
| 51 | Goals against | 38 |
| 5 | Goal differential | 5 |
| L2 | Current streak | W4 |
Road versus home
|
TOR road
|
Metric |
MTL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Games | 6 |
| 3 | Wins | 3 |
| 7 | Points | 7 |
| 6 | Goal differential | -3 |
Last 10 games
|
TOR
|
Metric |
MTL
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-4-1 | Record | 7-2-1 |
| 11 | Points | 15 |
| 42 | Goals for | 31 |
| 36 | Goals against | 24 |
| 6 | Goal differential | 7 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TOR
5 wins
10
games reviewed
MTL
5 wins
Total goals27 – 22
Goal differential
+5
/
-5
Goals per game2.7 / 2.2
Shots per game29.6 / 27.5
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 2 | 24 - 28 | View |
| Mar 10, 2026 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
1 - 3 | 18 - 33 | View |
| Dec 6, 2025 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
2 - 1 | 34 - 23 | View |
| Nov 22, 2025 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
2 - 5 | 26 - 29 | View |
| Oct 8, 2025 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
2 - 5 | 31 - 27 | View |
| Apr 12, 2025 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
0 - 1 | 15 - 35 | View |
| Jan 18, 2025 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
7 - 3 | 34 - 35 | View |
| Nov 9, 2024 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
1 - 4 | 21 - 27 | View |
| Oct 9, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
0 - 1 | 48 - 27 | View |
| Apr 6, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
4 - 2 | 30 - 26 | View |