Forward trio
66:34 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 72 / 63
- Fenwick for / against
- 56 / 49
- Corsi share
- 53.3%
- Fenwick share
- 53.3%
- xG for / against
- 4.57 / 3.17
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Montréal Canadiens prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 10, 2026
NHL matchup
Toronto Maple Leafs at Montréal Canadiens
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 10, 2026.
March 10, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 10. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
87:39 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 86 / 99
- Fenwick for / against
- 68 / 70
- Corsi share
- 46.5%
- Fenwick share
- 49.3%
- xG for / against
- 3.84 / 4.15
Montréal Canadiens
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
81:36 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 75 / 85
- Fenwick for / against
- 49 / 61
- Corsi share
- 46.9%
- Fenwick share
- 44.5%
- xG for / against
- 3.72 / 4.61
Defense pair
118:53 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 83 / 147
- Fenwick for / against
- 56 / 113
- Corsi share
- 36.1%
- Fenwick share
- 33.1%
- xG for / against
- 3.68 / 7.92
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Anthony Stolarz
Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Mar 7
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 152
- Save %
- 91.4
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 36.2
Jakub Dobes
Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Mar 7
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 157
- Save %
- 89.2
- Goals allowed
- 17
- Close-range shots %
- 31.2
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 10, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
- xG for / game
- 3.14
- xG against / game
- 3.70
- xG differential / game
- -0.56
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Montréal Canadiens
- xG for / game
- 3.30
- xG against / game
- 3.88
- xG differential / game
- -0.58
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 10, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 55.4
- Corsi share (%)
- 45.5
- Fenwick share (%)
- 46.8
- Faceoff win %
- 53.9
- Penalties / game
- 3.5
Shots / game: 29.6 · Shooting: 8.4% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft
Montréal Canadiens
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 56.3
- Corsi share (%)
- 46.0
- Fenwick share (%)
- 45.8
- Faceoff win %
- 54.4
- Penalties / game
- 3.5
Shots / game: 26.9 · Shooting: 16.7% · Avg distance: 32.7 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TOR
|
Metric |
MTL
|
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Points | 14 |
| 0.615 | Points % | 0.636 |
| 50 | Goals for | 36 |
| 41 | Goals against | 36 |
| 9 | Goal differential | 0 |
| W4 | Current streak | W2 |
Road versus home
|
TOR road
|
Metric |
MTL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 6 |
| 3 | Wins | 3 |
| 7 | Points | 7 |
| 10 | Goal differential | -3 |
Last 10 games
|
TOR
|
Metric |
MTL
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-2-2 | Record | 5-3-2 |
| 14 | Points | 12 |
| 44 | Goals for | 33 |
| 34 | Goals against | 34 |
| 10 | Goal differential | -1 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TOR
7 wins
10
games reviewed
MTL
3 wins
Total goals33 – 23
Goal differential
+10
/
-10
Goals per game3.3 / 2.3
Shots per game31.9 / 27.3
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
2 - 1 | 34 - 23 | View |
| Nov 22, 2025 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
2 - 5 | 26 - 29 | View |
| Oct 8, 2025 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
2 - 5 | 31 - 27 | View |
| Apr 12, 2025 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
0 - 1 | 15 - 35 | View |
| Jan 18, 2025 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
7 - 3 | 34 - 35 | View |
| Nov 9, 2024 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
1 - 4 | 21 - 27 | View |
| Oct 9, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
0 - 1 | 48 - 27 | View |
| Apr 6, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
4 - 2 | 30 - 26 | View |
| Mar 9, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
3 - 2 | 27 - 31 | View |
| Oct 11, 2023 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
5 - 6 | 24 - 42 | View |