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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Minnesota Wild prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 15, 2026

NHL matchup

Toronto Maple Leafs at Minnesota Wild

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 15, 2026.

December 15, 2026 · 7:00 PM CST
Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

47.4%
at
Home

Minnesota Wild

8-3-2

52.6% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Minnesota Wild at 52.6%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Away team

Toronto Maple Leafs

47.4%
Fair American +111
Fair decimal 2.11
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 15, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 15. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

104:16 together · 10 games

xG share45.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 118
Fenwick for / against
71 / 87
Corsi share
42.4%
Fenwick share
44.9%
xG for / against
4.07 / 4.98
All observed combinations

Minnesota Wild

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

122:28 together · 10 games

xG share71.8%
Corsi for / against
150 / 75
Fenwick for / against
116 / 59
Corsi share
66.7%
Fenwick share
66.3%
xG for / against
9.98 / 3.91
Defense pair

95:23 together · 10 games

xG share67.5%
Corsi for / against
119 / 65
Fenwick for / against
93 / 44
Corsi share
64.7%
Fenwick share
67.9%
xG for / against
7.35 / 3.54
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
150
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
31.3

Calvin Pickard

Minnesota Wild · Last start: Oct 25

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
42
Save %
83.3
Goals allowed
7
Close-range shots %
23.8
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 15, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.20
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.24

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Minnesota Wild

xG for / game
3.95
xG against / game
2.76
xG differential / game
1.20

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 15, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
46.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.2
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Minnesota Wild

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
64.5
Corsi share (%)
54.9
Fenwick share (%)
57.4
Faceoff win %
51.4
Penalties / game
3.9

Shots / game: 32.7 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 33.0 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Minnesota Wild MIN
16Points18
0.615Points %0.692
50Goals for41
41Goals against30
9Goal differential11
W4Current streakW2
Road versus home
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR road
Metric
Minnesota Wild MIN home
5Games4
3Wins4
7Points8
10Goal differential7
Last 10 games
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Minnesota Wild MIN
6-2-2Record6-3-1
14Points13
44Goals for32
34Goals against25
10Goal differential7
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Minnesota Wild MIN 4 wins
Total goals32 – 29
Goal differential +3 / -3
Goals per game3.2 / 2.9
Shots per game29.4 / 32.5
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 15, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
4 - 2 26 - 38 View
Jan 19, 2026
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
6 - 3 38 - 30 View
Jan 29, 2025
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 1 25 - 33 View
Nov 3, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
1 - 2 28 - 33 View
Nov 19, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
4 - 3 25 - 36 View
Oct 14, 2023
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 7 32 - 33 View
Feb 24, 2023
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
1 - 2 25 - 24 View
Nov 25, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
4 - 3 28 - 28 View
Feb 24, 2022
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
1 - 3 30 - 25 View
Dec 4, 2021
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
3 - 4 42 - 40 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TOR MIN