Forward trio
49:56 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 38 / 58
- Fenwick for / against
- 32 / 43
- Corsi share
- 39.6%
- Fenwick share
- 42.7%
- xG for / against
- 2.24 / 4.28
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Minnesota Wild prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 15, 2026
NHL matchup
Toronto Maple Leafs at Minnesota Wild
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 15, 2026.
March 15, 2026
· 6:30 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 15. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
109:33 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 97 / 140
- Fenwick for / against
- 75 / 102
- Corsi share
- 40.9%
- Fenwick share
- 42.4%
- xG for / against
- 4.11 / 6.85
Minnesota Wild
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
108:40 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 116 / 103
- Fenwick for / against
- 84 / 80
- Corsi share
- 53.0%
- Fenwick share
- 51.2%
- xG for / against
- 5.69 / 4.87
Defense pair
160:44 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 185 / 136
- Fenwick for / against
- 139 / 99
- Corsi share
- 57.6%
- Fenwick share
- 58.4%
- xG for / against
- 9.95 / 5.27
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Joseph Woll
Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Mar 14
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 156
- Save %
- 88.5
- Goals allowed
- 18
- Close-range shots %
- 30.8
Filip Gustavsson
Minnesota Wild · Last start: Mar 14
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 122
- Save %
- 92.6
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 34.4
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 15, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
- xG for / game
- 2.76
- xG against / game
- 4.23
- xG differential / game
- -1.47
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Minnesota Wild
- xG for / game
- 3.26
- xG against / game
- 3.03
- xG differential / game
- 0.23
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 15, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 50.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 41.9
- Fenwick share (%)
- 42.6
- Faceoff win %
- 53.4
- Penalties / game
- 5.3
Shots / game: 27.0 · Shooting: 8.5% · Avg distance: 33.2 ft
Minnesota Wild
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 61.9
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.4
- Fenwick share (%)
- 50.7
- Faceoff win %
- 47.2
- Penalties / game
- 4.0
Shots / game: 30.6 · Shooting: 11.1% · Avg distance: 32.6 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TOR
|
Metric |
MIN
|
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Points | 18 |
| 0.615 | Points % | 0.692 |
| 50 | Goals for | 41 |
| 41 | Goals against | 30 |
| 9 | Goal differential | 11 |
| W4 | Current streak | W2 |
Road versus home
|
TOR road
|
Metric |
MIN home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 4 |
| 3 | Wins | 4 |
| 7 | Points | 8 |
| 10 | Goal differential | 7 |
Last 10 games
|
TOR
|
Metric |
MIN
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-2-2 | Record | 6-3-1 |
| 14 | Points | 13 |
| 44 | Goals for | 32 |
| 34 | Goals against | 25 |
| 10 | Goal differential | 7 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TOR
6 wins
10
games reviewed
MIN
4 wins
Total goals32 – 28
Goal differential
+4
/
-4
Goals per game3.2 / 2.8
Shots per game29.7 / 31.4
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 |
Minnesota Wild
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
6 - 3 | 38 - 30 | View |
| Jan 29, 2025 |
Minnesota Wild
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 1 | 25 - 33 | View |
| Nov 3, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Minnesota Wild
|
1 - 2 | 28 - 33 | View |
| Nov 19, 2023 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Minnesota Wild
|
4 - 3 | 25 - 36 | View |
| Oct 14, 2023 |
Minnesota Wild
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
4 - 7 | 32 - 33 | View |
| Feb 24, 2023 |
Minnesota Wild
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
1 - 2 | 25 - 24 | View |
| Nov 25, 2022 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Minnesota Wild
|
4 - 3 | 28 - 28 | View |
| Feb 24, 2022 |
Minnesota Wild
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
1 - 3 | 30 - 25 | View |
| Dec 4, 2021 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Minnesota Wild
|
3 - 4 | 42 - 40 | View |
| Dec 31, 2019 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Minnesota Wild
|
4 - 1 | 29 - 27 | View |