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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Los Angeles Kings prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 30, 2026

NHL matchup

Toronto Maple Leafs at Los Angeles Kings

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 30, 2026.

December 30, 2026 · 9:00 PM CST
Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-6-2

55.5% Model pick
at
Home

Los Angeles Kings

4-6-2

44.5%
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 55.5%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Away team

Toronto Maple Leafs

55.5%
Fair American -125
Fair decimal 1.8
Calculate value
Los Angeles Kings logo
Home team

Los Angeles Kings

44.5%
Fair American +125
Fair decimal 2.25
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 30, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 30. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

123:00 together · 10 games

xG share44.2%
Corsi for / against
99 / 131
Fenwick for / against
81 / 99
Corsi share
43.0%
Fenwick share
45.0%
xG for / against
4.51 / 5.69
All observed combinations

Los Angeles Kings

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

91:10 together · 10 games

xG share42.9%
Corsi for / against
56 / 82
Fenwick for / against
44 / 61
Corsi share
40.6%
Fenwick share
41.9%
xG for / against
3.26 / 4.33
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Sergei Bobrovsky

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 28

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
124
Save %
87.1
Goals allowed
16
Close-range shots %
27.4

Darcy Kuemper

Los Angeles Kings · Last start: Oct 29

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
130
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
34.6
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 30, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
2.93
xG against / game
3.13
xG differential / game
-0.19

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Los Angeles Kings

xG for / game
2.99
xG against / game
3.05
xG differential / game
-0.07

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 30, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
51.0
Corsi share (%)
45.5
Fenwick share (%)
48.7
Faceoff win %
52.0
Penalties / game
5.0

Shots / game: 27.9 · Shooting: 15.1% · Avg distance: 34.9 ft

Los Angeles Kings

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
57.6
Corsi share (%)
48.9
Fenwick share (%)
48.8
Faceoff win %
49.1
Penalties / game
4.1

Shots / game: 26.9 · Shooting: 9.7% · Avg distance: 32.2 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Los Angeles Kings LAK
16Points10
0.533Points %0.417
56Goals for34
51Goals against42
5Goal differential-8
L2Current streakW1
Road versus home
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR road
Metric
Los Angeles Kings LAK home
7Games4
3Wins1
7Points2
6Goal differential-6
Last 10 games
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Los Angeles Kings LAK
5-4-1Record4-5-1
11Points9
42Goals for26
36Goals against29
6Goal differential-3
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Los Angeles Kings LAK 5 wins
Total goals36 – 29
Goal differential +7 / -7
Goals per game3.6 / 2.9
Shots per game28.7 / 32.4
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 4, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings
6 - 7 20 - 40 View
Nov 13, 2025
Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 3 37 - 15 View
Mar 29, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings
3 - 1 26 - 36 View
Oct 16, 2024
Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 6 34 - 26 View
Jan 2, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings
3 - 0 29 - 31 View
Oct 31, 2023
Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 1 27 - 30 View
Dec 8, 2022
Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
0 - 5 29 - 41 View
Oct 29, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings
2 - 4 28 - 29 View
Nov 24, 2021
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings
6 - 2 38 - 32 View
Nov 8, 2021
Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 1 29 - 34 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TOR LAK