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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Florida Panthers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for April 1, 2027

NHL matchup

Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for April 1, 2027.

April 1, 2027 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

39.9%
at
Home

Florida Panthers

6-4-2

60.1% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Florida Panthers at 60.1%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Away team

Toronto Maple Leafs

39.9%
Fair American +151
Fair decimal 2.51
Calculate value
Florida Panthers logo
Home team

Florida Panthers

60.1%
Fair American -151
Fair decimal 1.66
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Apr 1, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Apr 1. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

104:16 together · 10 games

xG share45.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 118
Fenwick for / against
71 / 87
Corsi share
42.4%
Fenwick share
44.9%
xG for / against
4.07 / 4.98
All observed combinations

Florida Panthers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

126:22 together · 10 games

xG share60.5%
Corsi for / against
131 / 84
Fenwick for / against
97 / 66
Corsi share
60.9%
Fenwick share
59.5%
xG for / against
5.35 / 3.48
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
150
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
31.3

Akira Schmid

Florida Panthers · Last start: Oct 25

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
117
Save %
87.2
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
29.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Apr 1, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.20
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.24

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Florida Panthers

xG for / game
3.41
xG against / game
2.75
xG differential / game
0.66

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Apr 1, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
46.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.2
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Florida Panthers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
62.8
Corsi share (%)
56.1
Fenwick share (%)
54.5
Faceoff win %
45.5
Penalties / game
5.7

Shots / game: 29.6 · Shooting: 10.1% · Avg distance: 32.7 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Florida Panthers FLA
16Points14
0.615Points %0.583
50Goals for34
41Goals against36
9Goal differential-2
W4Current streakW1
Road versus home
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR road
Metric
Florida Panthers FLA home
5Games3
3Wins2
7Points4
10Goal differential3
Last 10 games
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Florida Panthers FLA
6-2-2Record5-4-1
14Points11
44Goals for30
34Goals against32
10Goal differential-2
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Florida Panthers FLA 6 wins
Total goals26 – 35
Goal differential -9 / +9
Goals per game2.6 / 3.5
Shots per game24.4 / 30.9
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 11, 2026
Florida Panthers Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
6 - 2 25 - 19 View
Feb 26, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers Florida Panthers
1 - 5 29 - 37 View
Jan 6, 2026
Florida Panthers Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
1 - 4 32 - 23 View
Dec 2, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers Florida Panthers
4 - 1 31 - 26 View
Apr 8, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers Florida Panthers
1 - 3 18 - 37 View
Apr 2, 2025
Florida Panthers Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 3 31 - 26 View
Mar 13, 2025
Florida Panthers Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 2 25 - 25 View
Nov 27, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers Florida Panthers
1 - 5 24 - 24 View
Apr 16, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers Florida Panthers
2 - 5 26 - 42 View
Apr 1, 2024
Florida Panthers Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 6 30 - 23 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TOR FLA