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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Detroit Red Wings prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 22, 2026

NHL matchup

Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 22, 2026.

December 22, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

53.7% Model pick
at
Home

Detroit Red Wings

4-4-3

46.3%
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 53.7%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Away team

Toronto Maple Leafs

53.7%
Fair American -116
Fair decimal 1.86
Calculate value
Detroit Red Wings logo
Home team

Detroit Red Wings

46.3%
Fair American +116
Fair decimal 2.16
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 22, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 22. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

104:16 together · 10 games

xG share45.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 118
Fenwick for / against
71 / 87
Corsi share
42.4%
Fenwick share
44.9%
xG for / against
4.07 / 4.98
All observed combinations

Detroit Red Wings

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

100:07 together · 10 games

xG share53.5%
Corsi for / against
105 / 87
Fenwick for / against
73 / 51
Corsi share
54.7%
Fenwick share
58.9%
xG for / against
3.75 / 3.26
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
150
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
31.3

John Gibson

Detroit Red Wings · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
116
Save %
84.5
Goals allowed
18
Close-range shots %
30.2
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 22, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.20
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.24

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Detroit Red Wings

xG for / game
3.46
xG against / game
3.15
xG differential / game
0.31

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 22, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
46.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.2
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Detroit Red Wings

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
64.7
Corsi share (%)
53.3
Fenwick share (%)
54.0
Faceoff win %
49.4
Penalties / game
4.4

Shots / game: 30.6 · Shooting: 9.2% · Avg distance: 32.8 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Detroit Red Wings DET
16Points11
0.615Points %0.500
50Goals for29
41Goals against34
9Goal differential-5
W4Current streakL1
Road versus home
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR road
Metric
Detroit Red Wings DET home
5Games7
3Wins3
7Points7
10Goal differential-3
Last 10 games
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Detroit Red Wings DET
6-2-2Record4-3-3
14Points11
44Goals for29
34Goals against32
10Goal differential-3
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 3 wins
10 games reviewed
Detroit Red Wings DET 7 wins
Total goals28 – 33
Goal differential -5 / +5
Goals per game2.8 / 3.3
Shots per game27.5 / 29.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 21, 2026
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 1 41 - 31 View
Dec 28, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
2 - 3 27 - 36 View
Oct 13, 2025
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 2 15 - 40 View
Oct 11, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
3 - 6 23 - 35 View
Apr 17, 2025
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 4 34 - 20 View
Dec 27, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
5 - 2 23 - 25 View
Dec 14, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
2 - 4 25 - 26 View
Nov 8, 2024
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
1 - 3 22 - 20 View
Apr 13, 2024
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 4 32 - 36 View
Jan 14, 2024
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 2 24 - 30 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TOR DET