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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Dallas Stars prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 9, 2026

NHL matchup

Toronto Maple Leafs at Dallas Stars

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 9, 2026.

December 9, 2026 · 6:30 PM CST
Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

52.1% Model pick
at
Home

Dallas Stars

7-3-1

47.9%
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 52.1%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Away team

Toronto Maple Leafs

52.1%
Fair American -109
Fair decimal 1.92
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 9, 2026.

Dallas Stars

All Model Picks

Bets
3
Record
2-1
Net units
0.09
ROI
3.1%

Value Picks

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Net units
0.00
ROI
—

Market Favourite

Bets
9
Record
6-3
Net units
0.55
ROI
6.1%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 9. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

104:16 together · 10 games

xG share45.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 118
Fenwick for / against
71 / 87
Corsi share
42.4%
Fenwick share
44.9%
xG for / against
4.07 / 4.98
All observed combinations

Dallas Stars

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

52:30 together · 7 games

xG share74.6%
Corsi for / against
52 / 43
Fenwick for / against
36 / 23
Corsi share
54.7%
Fenwick share
61.0%
xG for / against
2.76 / 0.94
Defense pair

96:24 together · 10 games

xG share58.8%
Corsi for / against
99 / 73
Fenwick for / against
66 / 48
Corsi share
57.6%
Fenwick share
57.9%
xG for / against
3.83 / 2.68
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
150
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
31.3

Jake Oettinger

Dallas Stars · Last start: Oct 25

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
103
Save %
90.3
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
34.0
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 9, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.20
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.24

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Dallas Stars

xG for / game
3.33
xG against / game
2.56
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 9, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
46.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.2
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Dallas Stars

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
58.0
Corsi share (%)
53.6
Fenwick share (%)
54.7
Faceoff win %
55.7
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 28.0 · Shooting: 11.1% · Avg distance: 31.0 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL
16Points15
0.615Points %0.682
50Goals for32
41Goals against20
9Goal differential12
W4Current streakW5
Road versus home
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR road
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL home
5Games6
3Wins4
7Points8
10Goal differential5
Last 10 games
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL
6-2-2Record7-2-1
14Points15
44Goals for32
34Goals against16
10Goal differential16
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 7 wins
10 games reviewed
Dallas Stars DAL 3 wins
Total goals36 – 28
Goal differential +8 / -8
Goals per game3.6 / 2.8
Shots per game31.0 / 30.4
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 13, 2026
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
6 - 5 32 - 27 View
Dec 21, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
1 - 5 28 - 22 View
Jan 14, 2025
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 1 23 - 28 View
Dec 18, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
5 - 3 19 - 39 View
Feb 7, 2024
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 5 31 - 31 View
Oct 26, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
4 - 1 24 - 32 View
Dec 6, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
4 - 0 29 - 44 View
Oct 20, 2022
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 3 28 - 43 View
Apr 7, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
4 - 3 41 - 18 View
Mar 15, 2022
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
0 - 4 35 - 40 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TOR DAL