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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Colorado Avalanche prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 10, 2026

NHL matchup

Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 10, 2026.

October 10, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

6
Final
Home

Colorado Avalanche

6-5-1

3 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Colorado Avalanche at 61.9% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Away team

Toronto Maple Leafs

38.1%
Fair American +162
Fair decimal 2.62
Best market +195 · BetRivers
Market implied 33.9%
Edge +4.2%
Expected value +12.4%
Calculate value
Colorado Avalanche logo
Home team

Colorado Avalanche

61.9%
Fair American -162
Fair decimal 1.62
Best market -205 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 67.2%
Edge -5.3%
Expected value -7.9%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 10, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 10. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs

5 / 5 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

67:01 together · 5 games

xG share49.7%
Corsi for / against
80 / 69
Fenwick for / against
61 / 56
Corsi share
53.7%
Fenwick share
52.1%
xG for / against
3.33 / 3.37
All observed combinations

Colorado Avalanche

4 / 4 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

25:16 together · 4 games

xG share69.0%
Corsi for / against
34 / 20
Fenwick for / against
26 / 11
Corsi share
63.0%
Fenwick share
70.3%
xG for / against
1.36 / 0.61
Defense pair

49:03 together · 4 games

xG share64.7%
Corsi for / against
49 / 43
Fenwick for / against
38 / 28
Corsi share
53.3%
Fenwick share
57.6%
xG for / against
2.40 / 1.31
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Sergei Bobrovsky

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 8

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
96
Save %
90.6
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
36.5

Scott Wedgewood

Colorado Avalanche · Last start: Oct 8

1 / 1 appearances covered

Shots faced
29
Save %
89.7
Goals allowed
3
Close-range shots %
27.6
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 10, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.10
xG against / game
3.78
xG differential / game
-0.68

5 / 5 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Colorado Avalanche

xG for / game
3.30
xG against / game
2.29
xG differential / game
1.01

4 / 4 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 10, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

5 / 5 games covered

Attempts / game
58.4
Corsi share (%)
48.3
Fenwick share (%)
47.9
Faceoff win %
53.0
Penalties / game
3.8

Shots / game: 28.8 · Shooting: 9.7% · Avg distance: 29.6 ft

Colorado Avalanche

4 / 4 games covered

Attempts / game
61.5
Corsi share (%)
51.9
Fenwick share (%)
53.0
Faceoff win %
51.0
Penalties / game
3.0

Shots / game: 32.2 · Shooting: 17.8% · Avg distance: 33.7 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL
16Points13
0.615Points %0.542
50Goals for49
41Goals against40
9Goal differential9
W4Current streakL1
Road versus home
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR road
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL home
5Games6
3Wins4
7Points9
10Goal differential11
Last 10 games
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL
6-2-2Record4-5-1
14Points9
44Goals for35
34Goals against35
10Goal differential0
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Colorado Avalanche COL 5 wins
Total goals37 – 35
Goal differential +2 / -2
Goals per game3.7 / 3.5
Shots per game28.8 / 34.3
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 25, 2026
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 1 37 - 33 View
Jan 12, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
4 - 3 31 - 34 View
Mar 19, 2025
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
1 - 2 39 - 26 View
Mar 8, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
4 - 7 21 - 34 View
Feb 24, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
4 - 3 30 - 29 View
Jan 13, 2024
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 3 33 - 29 View
Mar 15, 2023
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 1 29 - 18 View
Dec 31, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
6 - 2 32 - 28 View
Jan 8, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
4 - 5 27 - 49 View
Dec 1, 2021
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 8 31 - 41 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TOR COL