Skip to content

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Chicago Blackhawks prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 17, 2026

NHL matchup

Toronto Maple Leafs at Chicago Blackhawks

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 17, 2026.

November 17, 2026 · 6:30 PM CST
Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

55.2% Model pick
at
Home

Chicago Blackhawks

3-8-0

44.8%
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 55.2%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Away team

Toronto Maple Leafs

55.2%
Fair American -123
Fair decimal 1.81
Calculate value
Chicago Blackhawks logo
Home team

Chicago Blackhawks

44.8%
Fair American +123
Fair decimal 2.23
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 17, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 17. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

104:16 together · 10 games

xG share45.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 118
Fenwick for / against
71 / 87
Corsi share
42.4%
Fenwick share
44.9%
xG for / against
4.07 / 4.98
All observed combinations

Chicago Blackhawks

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

71:17 together · 9 games

xG share55.1%
Corsi for / against
48 / 57
Fenwick for / against
39 / 42
Corsi share
45.7%
Fenwick share
48.1%
xG for / against
2.97 / 2.42
Defense pair

112:28 together · 10 games

xG share40.8%
Corsi for / against
59 / 104
Fenwick for / against
48 / 77
Corsi share
36.2%
Fenwick share
38.4%
xG for / against
3.26 / 4.74
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
150
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
31.3

Spencer Knight

Chicago Blackhawks · Last start: Oct 25

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
153
Save %
89.5
Goals allowed
16
Close-range shots %
41.8
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.20
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.24

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Chicago Blackhawks

xG for / game
2.40
xG against / game
3.48
xG differential / game
-1.08

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
46.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.2
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Chicago Blackhawks

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
45.2
Corsi share (%)
43.2
Fenwick share (%)
42.0
Faceoff win %
42.7
Penalties / game
3.8

Shots / game: 20.9 · Shooting: 10.5% · Avg distance: 31.2 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Chicago Blackhawks CHI
16Points6
0.615Points %0.273
50Goals for24
41Goals against43
9Goal differential-19
W4Current streakL3
Road versus home
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR road
Metric
Chicago Blackhawks CHI home
5Games7
3Wins3
7Points6
10Goal differential-6
Last 10 games
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Chicago Blackhawks CHI
6-2-2Record3-7-0
14Points6
44Goals for22
34Goals against38
10Goal differential-16
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Chicago Blackhawks CHI 4 wins
Total goals34 – 29
Goal differential +5 / -5
Goals per game3.4 / 2.9
Shots per game32.8 / 29.8
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Dec 16, 2025
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 3 25 - 27 View
Nov 15, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
2 - 3 33 - 32 View
Feb 23, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
5 - 2 30 - 27 View
Dec 2, 2024
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
1 - 4 28 - 22 View
Nov 24, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
3 - 4 37 - 34 View
Oct 16, 2023
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 1 31 - 36 View
Feb 19, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
3 - 5 35 - 28 View
Feb 15, 2023
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 5 29 - 42 View
Dec 11, 2021
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 5 35 - 26 View
Oct 27, 2021
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
3 - 2 40 - 29 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TOR CHI