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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Carolina Hurricanes prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 5, 2027

NHL matchup

Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 5, 2027.

March 5, 2027 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-5-2

53.7% Model pick
at
Home

Carolina Hurricanes

10-2-2

46.3%
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 53.7%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Away team

Toronto Maple Leafs

53.7%
Fair American -116
Fair decimal 1.86
Calculate value
Carolina Hurricanes logo
Home team

Carolina Hurricanes

46.3%
Fair American +116
Fair decimal 2.16
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 5, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 5. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

111:53 together · 10 games

xG share45.6%
Corsi for / against
90 / 124
Fenwick for / against
74 / 92
Corsi share
42.1%
Fenwick share
44.6%
xG for / against
4.40 / 5.24
All observed combinations

Carolina Hurricanes

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

164:37 together · 10 games

xG share57.3%
Corsi for / against
176 / 119
Fenwick for / against
130 / 81
Corsi share
59.7%
Fenwick share
61.6%
xG for / against
8.35 / 6.22
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Sergei Bobrovsky

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 26

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
142
Save %
88.7
Goals allowed
16
Close-range shots %
25.4

Pyotr Kochetkov

Carolina Hurricanes · Last start: Oct 27

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
101
Save %
92.1
Goals allowed
8
Close-range shots %
40.6
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 5, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.02
xG against / game
3.38
xG differential / game
-0.36

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Carolina Hurricanes

xG for / game
3.95
xG against / game
2.37
xG differential / game
1.58

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 5, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
51.4
Corsi share (%)
44.1
Fenwick share (%)
46.9
Faceoff win %
52.8
Penalties / game
4.9

Shots / game: 28.1 · Shooting: 14.6% · Avg distance: 34.0 ft

Carolina Hurricanes

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
67.5
Corsi share (%)
59.2
Fenwick share (%)
60.9
Faceoff win %
49.3
Penalties / game
3.3

Shots / game: 35.0 · Shooting: 12.0% · Avg distance: 31.0 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Carolina Hurricanes CAR
16Points22
0.571Points %0.786
52Goals for53
46Goals against34
6Goal differential19
L1Current streakW2
Road versus home
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR road
Metric
Carolina Hurricanes CAR home
6Games5
3Wins3
7Points7
7Goal differential4
Last 10 games
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Carolina Hurricanes CAR
5-3-2Record8-1-1
12Points17
41Goals for42
35Goals against22
6Goal differential20
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 3 wins
10 games reviewed
Carolina Hurricanes CAR 7 wins
Total goals35 – 35
Goal differential 0 / 0
Goals per game3.5 / 3.5
Shots per game29.0 / 35.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 20, 2026
Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 3 36 - 26 View
Dec 4, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes
5 - 1 24 - 33 View
Nov 9, 2025
Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 4 47 - 20 View
Apr 13, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes
4 - 1 20 - 26 View
Feb 22, 2025
Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 6 35 - 23 View
Jan 9, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes
3 - 6 33 - 34 View
Mar 24, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes
1 - 2 33 - 43 View
Mar 16, 2024
Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 4 40 - 40 View
Dec 30, 2023
Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 2 28 - 27 View
Mar 25, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes
3 - 5 44 - 28 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TOR CAR