Away team
Toronto Maple Leafs
54.5%
Fair American
-120
Fair decimal
1.83
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Carolina Hurricanes prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 5, 2026
NHL matchup
Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 5, 2026.
December 5, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Toronto Maple Leafs at 54.5%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Carolina Hurricanes
45.5%
Fair American
+120
Fair decimal
2.2
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 5, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 4-5
- Net units
- -0.35
- ROI
- -3.9%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 5-2
- Net units
- 4.60
- ROI
- 65.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 2-5
- Net units
- -3.55
- ROI
- -50.7%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 12
- Record
- 9-3
- Net units
- 2.25
- ROI
- 18.7%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 2
- Record
- 1-1
- Net units
- -0.35
- ROI
- -17.3%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 14
- Record
- 10-4
- Net units
- 1.55
- ROI
- 11.1%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 5. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Toronto Maple Leafs
This selection is unavailable until complete validated shift records cover every selected game.
All observed combinationsCarolina Hurricanes
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
109:31 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 143 / 85
- Fenwick for / against
- 107 / 61
- Corsi share
- 62.7%
- Fenwick share
- 63.7%
- xG for / against
- 6.55 / 3.53
Defense pair
164:37 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 176 / 119
- Fenwick for / against
- 130 / 81
- Corsi share
- 59.7%
- Fenwick share
- 61.6%
- xG for / against
- 8.35 / 6.22
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected starter unavailable.
Carolina Hurricanes
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Sergei Bobrovsky
Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 28
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 124
- Save %
- 87.1
- Goals allowed
- 16
- Close-range shots %
- 27.4
Pyotr Kochetkov
Carolina Hurricanes · Last start: Oct 27
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 102
- Save %
- 92.2
- Goals allowed
- 8
- Close-range shots %
- 41.2
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
- xG for / game
- 2.96
- xG against / game
- 3.13
- xG differential / game
- -0.17
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Carolina Hurricanes
- xG for / game
- 3.95
- xG against / game
- 2.38
- xG differential / game
- 1.57
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 51.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 45.6
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.8
- Faceoff win %
- 52.0
- Penalties / game
- 5.0
Shots / game: 27.8 · Shooting: 15.1% · Avg distance: 34.9 ft
Carolina Hurricanes
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 67.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 59.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 60.8
- Faceoff win %
- 49.3
- Penalties / game
- 3.3
Shots / game: 35.0 · Shooting: 12.0% · Avg distance: 31.0 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TOR
|
Metric |
CAR
|
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Points | 22 |
| 0.533 | Points % | 0.786 |
| 56 | Goals for | 53 |
| 51 | Goals against | 34 |
| 5 | Goal differential | 19 |
| L2 | Current streak | W2 |
Road versus home
|
TOR road
|
Metric |
CAR home
|
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Games | 5 |
| 3 | Wins | 3 |
| 7 | Points | 7 |
| 6 | Goal differential | 4 |
Last 10 games
|
TOR
|
Metric |
CAR
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-4-1 | Record | 8-1-1 |
| 11 | Points | 17 |
| 42 | Goals for | 42 |
| 36 | Goals against | 22 |
| 6 | Goal differential | 20 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TOR
3 wins
10
games reviewed
CAR
7 wins
Total goals35 – 35
Goal differential
0
/
0
Goals per game3.5 / 3.5
Shots per game29.0 / 35.0
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 |
Carolina Hurricanes
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
4 - 3 | 36 - 26 | View |
| Dec 4, 2025 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Carolina Hurricanes
|
5 - 1 | 24 - 33 | View |
| Nov 9, 2025 |
Carolina Hurricanes
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
5 - 4 | 47 - 20 | View |
| Apr 13, 2025 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Carolina Hurricanes
|
4 - 1 | 20 - 26 | View |
| Feb 22, 2025 |
Carolina Hurricanes
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 6 | 35 - 23 | View |
| Jan 9, 2025 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Carolina Hurricanes
|
3 - 6 | 33 - 34 | View |
| Mar 24, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Carolina Hurricanes
|
1 - 2 | 33 - 43 | View |
| Mar 16, 2024 |
Carolina Hurricanes
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
5 - 4 | 40 - 40 | View |
| Dec 30, 2023 |
Carolina Hurricanes
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 2 | 28 - 27 | View |
| Mar 25, 2023 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Carolina Hurricanes
|
3 - 5 | 44 - 28 | View |