Forward trio
45:39 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 37 / 55
- Fenwick for / against
- 32 / 40
- Corsi share
- 40.2%
- Fenwick share
- 44.4%
- xG for / against
- 2.39 / 3.56
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Buffalo Sabres prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 14, 2026
NHL matchup
Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 14, 2026.
March 14, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 14. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
99:16 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 90 / 127
- Fenwick for / against
- 68 / 93
- Corsi share
- 41.5%
- Fenwick share
- 42.2%
- xG for / against
- 3.58 / 6.07
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
95:28 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 111 / 73
- Fenwick for / against
- 95 / 49
- Corsi share
- 60.3%
- Fenwick share
- 66.0%
- xG for / against
- 8.11 / 3.74
Defense pair
102:04 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 93 / 77
- Fenwick for / against
- 75 / 56
- Corsi share
- 54.7%
- Fenwick share
- 57.3%
- xG for / against
- 4.22 / 5.50
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Joseph Woll
Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Mar 12
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 158
- Save %
- 88.0
- Goals allowed
- 19
- Close-range shots %
- 35.4
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Mar 12
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 145
- Save %
- 91.0
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 40.0
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 14, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
- xG for / game
- 2.84
- xG against / game
- 4.13
- xG differential / game
- -1.29
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Buffalo Sabres
- xG for / game
- 3.56
- xG against / game
- 3.48
- xG differential / game
- 0.08
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 14, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 51.1
- Corsi share (%)
- 42.8
- Fenwick share (%)
- 43.7
- Faceoff win %
- 53.5
- Penalties / game
- 4.8
Shots / game: 27.9 · Shooting: 9.3% · Avg distance: 33.1 ft
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 60.1
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.7
- Fenwick share (%)
- 52.1
- Faceoff win %
- 49.6
- Penalties / game
- 4.7
Shots / game: 30.7 · Shooting: 12.7% · Avg distance: 32.9 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TOR
|
Metric |
BUF
|
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Points | 11 |
| 0.615 | Points % | 0.500 |
| 50 | Goals for | 31 |
| 41 | Goals against | 41 |
| 9 | Goal differential | -10 |
| W4 | Current streak | OT1 |
Road versus home
|
TOR road
|
Metric |
BUF home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 6 |
| 3 | Wins | 3 |
| 7 | Points | 6 |
| 10 | Goal differential | -5 |
Last 10 games
|
TOR
|
Metric |
BUF
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-2-2 | Record | 4-3-3 |
| 14 | Points | 11 |
| 44 | Goals for | 28 |
| 34 | Goals against | 35 |
| 10 | Goal differential | -7 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TOR
6 wins
10
games reviewed
BUF
4 wins
Total goals38 – 37
Goal differential
+1
/
-1
Goals per game3.8 / 3.7
Shots per game28.6 / 31.0
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
7 - 4 | 31 - 23 | View |
| Oct 25, 2025 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 4 | 26 - 23 | View |
| Oct 24, 2025 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
3 - 5 | 34 - 30 | View |
| Apr 15, 2025 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
4 - 0 | 32 - 35 | View |
| Dec 20, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
6 - 3 | 29 - 27 | View |
| Dec 15, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 5 | 27 - 41 | View |
| Mar 30, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
3 - 0 | 22 - 34 | View |
| Mar 6, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
1 - 2 | 25 - 27 | View |
| Dec 21, 2023 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
3 - 9 | 27 - 34 | View |
| Nov 4, 2023 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
6 - 4 | 41 - 28 | View |