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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Boston Bruins prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 30, 2027

NHL matchup

Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 30, 2027.

January 30, 2027 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

44.8%
at
Home

Boston Bruins

9-2-1

55.2% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Boston Bruins at 55.2%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Away team

Toronto Maple Leafs

44.8%
Fair American +123
Fair decimal 2.23
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 30, 2027.

Boston Bruins

All Model Picks

Bets
8
Record
6-2
Net units
3.03
ROI
37.9%

Value Picks

Bets
7
Record
4-3
Net units
0.79
ROI
11.3%

Market Favourite

Bets
6
Record
6-0
Net units
4.68
ROI
78.1%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 30. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

104:16 together · 10 games

xG share45.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 118
Fenwick for / against
71 / 87
Corsi share
42.4%
Fenwick share
44.9%
xG for / against
4.07 / 4.98
All observed combinations

Boston Bruins

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

113:24 together · 9 games

xG share48.5%
Corsi for / against
96 / 122
Fenwick for / against
70 / 81
Corsi share
44.0%
Fenwick share
46.4%
xG for / against
5.44 / 5.77
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
150
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
31.3

Jeremy Swayman

Boston Bruins · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
131
Save %
90.8
Goals allowed
12
Close-range shots %
32.8
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 30, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.20
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.24

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Boston Bruins

xG for / game
3.30
xG against / game
3.04
xG differential / game
0.27

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 30, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
46.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.2
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Boston Bruins

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
51.2
Corsi share (%)
46.5
Fenwick share (%)
48.4
Faceoff win %
54.0
Penalties / game
5.0

Shots / game: 26.2 · Shooting: 15.6% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Boston Bruins BOS
16Points19
0.615Points %0.792
50Goals for48
41Goals against26
9Goal differential22
W4Current streakW2
Road versus home
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR road
Metric
Boston Bruins BOS home
5Games6
3Wins5
7Points10
10Goal differential17
Last 10 games
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Boston Bruins BOS
6-2-2Record7-2-1
14Points15
44Goals for41
34Goals against23
10Goal differential18
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Boston Bruins BOS 6 wins
Total goals33 – 36
Goal differential -3 / +3
Goals per game3.3 / 3.6
Shots per game31.1 / 31.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 24, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
4 - 2 35 - 20 View
Nov 11, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
3 - 5 33 - 32 View
Nov 8, 2025
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 3 39 - 33 View
Feb 25, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
5 - 4 29 - 36 View
Jan 4, 2025
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 6 31 - 29 View
Nov 5, 2024
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
0 - 4 29 - 27 View
Oct 26, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
3 - 4 23 - 34 View
Mar 7, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
1 - 4 29 - 25 View
Mar 4, 2024
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 1 27 - 33 View
Dec 2, 2023
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 3 37 - 40 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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