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Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 13, 2026

NHL matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 13, 2026.

October 13, 2026 · 6:15 PM CST
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

1
Final
Home

New York Rangers

7-6-1

4 Model pick
Model V2 pick: New York Rangers at 54.2% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Away team

Tampa Bay Lightning

45.8%
Fair American +118
Fair decimal 2.18
Best market -155 · Bovada
Market implied 60.8%
Edge -15.0%
Expected value -24.7%
Calculate value
New York Rangers logo
Home team

New York Rangers

54.2%
Fair American -118
Fair decimal 1.85
Best market +142 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 41.3%
Edge +12.9%
Expected value +31.2%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 13, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 13. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning

5 / 5 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

57:33 together · 5 games

xG share51.5%
Corsi for / against
67 / 56
Fenwick for / against
45 / 38
Corsi share
54.5%
Fenwick share
54.2%
xG for / against
2.37 / 2.23
All observed combinations

New York Rangers

7 / 7 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

95:34 together · 7 games

xG share38.1%
Corsi for / against
71 / 86
Fenwick for / against
43 / 63
Corsi share
45.2%
Fenwick share
40.6%
xG for / against
3.11 / 5.05
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Andrei Vasilevskiy 72.2%
Other eligible goalies

Why Andrei Vasilevskiy?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+1.318
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.472
Days since last start
+0.372
Started last game
-0.282
Team win pct before
-0.201
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 13, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

New York Rangers

Dylan Garand Only eligible candidate

Why Dylan Garand?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
-0.608
Team win pct before
-0.454
Goalie start pct before
+0.405
Started last game
-0.356
Won previous appearance
+0.274
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 13, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 10

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
83
Save %
89.2
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
26.5

Dylan Garand

New York Rangers · Last start: Oct 11

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
55
Save %
94.5
Goals allowed
3
Close-range shots %
32.7
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 13, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.33
xG against / game
2.54
xG differential / game
0.80

5 / 5 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

New York Rangers

xG for / game
3.15
xG against / game
2.62
xG differential / game
0.53

7 / 7 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 13, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

5 / 5 games covered

Attempts / game
63.2
Corsi share (%)
55.0
Fenwick share (%)
55.1
Faceoff win %
47.4
Penalties / game
3.4

Shots / game: 30.2 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 30.7 ft

New York Rangers

7 / 7 games covered

Attempts / game
51.3
Corsi share (%)
48.3
Fenwick share (%)
48.7
Faceoff win %
53.7
Penalties / game
4.14

Shots / game: 23.3 · Shooting: 14.1% · Avg distance: 31.4 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
New York Rangers NYR
15Points15
0.682Points %0.536
38Goals for44
34Goals against42
4Goal differential2
OT1Current streakL3
Road versus home
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL road
Metric
New York Rangers NYR home
6Games7
2Wins6
5Points12
-5Goal differential16
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
New York Rangers NYR
7-2-1Record4-5-1
15Points9
37Goals for33
29Goals against36
8Goal differential-3
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 4 wins
10 games reviewed
New York Rangers NYR 6 wins
Total goals29 – 35
Goal differential -6 / +6
Goals per game2.9 / 3.5
Shots per game28.3 / 25.8
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 1, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers New York Rangers
1 - 5 25 - 25 View
Apr 15, 2026
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 2 21 - 31 View
Nov 29, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers New York Rangers
4 - 1 35 - 13 View
Nov 12, 2025
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
7 - 3 21 - 36 View
Apr 17, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers New York Rangers
0 - 4 27 - 22 View
Apr 7, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers New York Rangers
5 - 1 23 - 39 View
Dec 28, 2024
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 6 44 - 25 View
Mar 14, 2024
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 6 28 - 28 View
Feb 7, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers New York Rangers
1 - 3 18 - 24 View
Dec 30, 2023
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 1 21 - 35 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TBL NYR