Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 1, 2026

NHL matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 1, 2026.

October 1, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

50-26-6
at
Home

New York Rangers

34-39-9
Model V2 favourite Tampa Bay Lightning at 59.5%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Away team

Tampa Bay Lightning

59.5%
Fair American -147
Fair decimal 1.68
Best market -140 · Bovada
Market implied 58.3%
Edge +1.2%
Expected value +2.0%
Calculate value
New York Rangers logo
Home team

New York Rangers

40.5%
Fair American +147
Fair decimal 2.47
Best market +120 · BetMGM
Market implied 45.5%
Edge -5.0%
Expected value -10.9%
Calculate value
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
New York Rangers NYR
106Points77
0.646Points %0.470
290Goals for238
231Goals against250
59Goal differential-12
L1Current streakW1
Road versus home
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL road
Metric
New York Rangers NYR home
41Games41
24Wins14
53Points35
37Goal differential-18
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
New York Rangers NYR
5-5-0Record6-4-0
10Points12
26Goals for36
30Goals against20
-4Goal differential16
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 4 wins
10 games reviewed
New York Rangers NYR 6 wins
Total goals31 – 36
Goal differential -5 / +5
Goals per game3.1 / 3.6
Shots per game28.9 / 27.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 15, 2026
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 2 21 - 31 View
Nov 29, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers New York Rangers
4 - 1 35 - 13 View
Nov 12, 2025
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
7 - 3 21 - 36 View
Apr 17, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers New York Rangers
0 - 4 27 - 22 View
Apr 7, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers New York Rangers
5 - 1 23 - 39 View
Dec 28, 2024
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 6 44 - 25 View
Mar 14, 2024
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 6 28 - 28 View
Feb 7, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers New York Rangers
1 - 3 18 - 24 View
Dec 30, 2023
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 1 21 - 35 View
Apr 5, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers New York Rangers
3 - 6 31 - 37 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TBL NYR