Skip to content

Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 1, 2026

NHL matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 1, 2026.

October 1, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

1 Model pick
Final
Home

New York Rangers

7-6-1

5
Model V2 pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 55.0% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Away team

Tampa Bay Lightning

55.0%
Fair American -122
Fair decimal 1.82
Best market -140 · FanDuel
Market implied 58.3%
Edge -3.3%
Expected value -5.7%
Calculate value
New York Rangers logo
Home team

New York Rangers

45.0%
Fair American +122
Fair decimal 2.22
Best market +126 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 44.2%
Edge +0.8%
Expected value +1.7%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 1, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 1. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning

No completed regular-season games in this window.

All observed combinations

New York Rangers

1 / 1 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

17:29 together · 1 game

xG share31.5%
Corsi for / against
14 / 18
Fenwick for / against
8 / 12
Corsi share
43.8%
Fenwick share
40.0%
xG for / against
0.48 / 1.05
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Igor Shesterkin

New York Rangers · Last start: Sep 29

1 / 1 appearances covered

Shots faced
22
Save %
90.9
Goals allowed
2
Close-range shots %
27.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 1, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG unavailable.

0 / 0 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

New York Rangers

xG for / game
2.31
xG against / game
2.86
xG differential / game
-0.55

1 / 1 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 1, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

New York Rangers

1 / 1 games covered

Attempts / game
47.0
Corsi share (%)
46.1
Fenwick share (%)
43.7
Faceoff win %
50.0
Penalties / game
1.0

Shots / game: 24.0 · Shooting: 0.0% · Avg distance: 29.5 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
New York Rangers NYR
15Points15
0.682Points %0.536
38Goals for44
34Goals against42
4Goal differential2
OT1Current streakL3
Road versus home
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL road
Metric
New York Rangers NYR home
6Games7
2Wins6
5Points12
-5Goal differential16
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
New York Rangers NYR
7-2-1Record4-5-1
15Points9
37Goals for33
29Goals against36
8Goal differential-3
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 4 wins
10 games reviewed
New York Rangers NYR 6 wins
Total goals31 – 36
Goal differential -5 / +5
Goals per game3.1 / 3.6
Shots per game28.9 / 27.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 15, 2026
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 2 21 - 31 View
Nov 29, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers New York Rangers
4 - 1 35 - 13 View
Nov 12, 2025
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
7 - 3 21 - 36 View
Apr 17, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers New York Rangers
0 - 4 27 - 22 View
Apr 7, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers New York Rangers
5 - 1 23 - 39 View
Dec 28, 2024
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 6 44 - 25 View
Mar 14, 2024
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 6 28 - 28 View
Feb 7, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers New York Rangers
1 - 3 18 - 24 View
Dec 30, 2023
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 1 21 - 35 View
Apr 5, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers New York Rangers
3 - 6 31 - 37 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TBL NYR