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Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 10, 2026

NHL matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 10, 2026.

October 10, 2026 · 6:30 PM CST
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

5
Final
Home

New York Islanders

6-4-2

3 Model pick
Model V2 pick: New York Islanders at 60.6% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Away team

Tampa Bay Lightning

39.4%
Fair American +154
Fair decimal 2.54
Best market -164 · FanDuel
Market implied 62.1%
Edge -22.7%
Expected value -36.6%
Calculate value
New York Islanders logo
Home team

New York Islanders

60.6%
Fair American -154
Fair decimal 1.65
Best market +153 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 39.5%
Edge +21.1%
Expected value +53.3%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 10, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 10. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning

4 / 4 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

44:13 together · 4 games

xG share52.6%
Corsi for / against
58 / 41
Fenwick for / against
41 / 29
Corsi share
58.6%
Fenwick share
58.6%
xG for / against
2.19 / 1.97
All observed combinations

New York Islanders

4 / 4 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

30:28 together · 4 games

xG share42.3%
Corsi for / against
14 / 35
Fenwick for / against
9 / 23
Corsi share
28.6%
Fenwick share
28.1%
xG for / against
1.06 / 1.45
Defense pair

36:45 together · 4 games

xG share59.5%
Corsi for / against
34 / 30
Fenwick for / against
24 / 25
Corsi share
53.1%
Fenwick share
49.0%
xG for / against
2.06 / 1.40
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 8

1 / 1 appearances covered

Shots faced
36
Save %
94.4
Goals allowed
2
Close-range shots %
38.9

Ilya Sorokin

New York Islanders · Last start: Oct 8

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
86
Save %
96.5
Goals allowed
3
Close-range shots %
27.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 10, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.54
xG against / game
2.60
xG differential / game
0.94

4 / 4 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

New York Islanders

xG for / game
2.92
xG against / game
3.10
xG differential / game
-0.18

4 / 4 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 10, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

4 / 4 games covered

Attempts / game
66.5
Corsi share (%)
55.6
Fenwick share (%)
55.9
Faceoff win %
47.0
Penalties / game
3.5

Shots / game: 31.2 · Shooting: 8.8% · Avg distance: 30.0 ft

New York Islanders

4 / 4 games covered

Attempts / game
50.5
Corsi share (%)
46.8
Fenwick share (%)
46.3
Faceoff win %
51.4
Penalties / game
5.0

Shots / game: 24.2 · Shooting: 13.4% · Avg distance: 31.8 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
New York Islanders NYI
15Points14
0.682Points %0.583
38Goals for36
34Goals against32
4Goal differential4
OT1Current streakW1
Road versus home
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL road
Metric
New York Islanders NYI home
6Games6
2Wins4
5Points9
-5Goal differential8
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
New York Islanders NYI
7-2-1Record5-3-2
15Points12
37Goals for29
29Goals against30
8Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 4 wins
10 games reviewed
New York Islanders NYI 6 wins
Total goals25 – 29
Goal differential -4 / +4
Goals per game2.5 / 2.9
Shots per game28.8 / 29.1
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Dec 13, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders New York Islanders
2 - 3 34 - 17 View
Dec 6, 2025
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 0 19 - 32 View
Dec 2, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders New York Islanders
1 - 2 31 - 24 View
Apr 1, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders New York Islanders
4 - 1 24 - 29 View
Mar 29, 2025
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 5 38 - 24 View
Feb 1, 2025
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 2 36 - 31 View
Mar 30, 2024
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 4 28 - 40 View
Feb 24, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders New York Islanders
4 - 2 21 - 34 View
Feb 8, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders New York Islanders
2 - 6 20 - 24 View
Apr 6, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders New York Islanders
1 - 6 31 - 42 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TBL NYI