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St. Louis Blues vs Washington Capitals prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 19, 2026

NHL matchup

St. Louis Blues at Washington Capitals

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 19, 2026.

December 19, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

St. Louis Blues

5-5-1

43.1%
at
Home

Washington Capitals

6-4-0

56.9% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Washington Capitals at 56.9%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

St. Louis Blues logo
Away team

St. Louis Blues

43.1%
Fair American +132
Fair decimal 2.32
Calculate value
Washington Capitals logo
Home team

Washington Capitals

56.9%
Fair American -132
Fair decimal 1.76
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 19, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 19. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

St. Louis Blues

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

113:14 together · 10 games

xG share49.2%
Corsi for / against
104 / 102
Fenwick for / against
75 / 86
Corsi share
50.5%
Fenwick share
46.6%
xG for / against
5.79 / 5.98
All observed combinations

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

41:39 together · 6 games

xG share62.6%
Corsi for / against
41 / 38
Fenwick for / against
32 / 27
Corsi share
51.9%
Fenwick share
54.2%
xG for / against
2.56 / 1.53
Defense pair

87:35 together · 10 games

xG share48.6%
Corsi for / against
78 / 105
Fenwick for / against
61 / 80
Corsi share
42.6%
Fenwick share
43.3%
xG for / against
4.29 / 4.54
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Joel Hofer

St. Louis Blues · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
157
Save %
91.1
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
34.4

Charlie Lindgren

Washington Capitals · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
79
Save %
88.6
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
25.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 19, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

St. Louis Blues

xG for / game
2.90
xG against / game
2.82
xG differential / game
0.08

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Washington Capitals

xG for / game
3.53
xG against / game
3.37
xG differential / game
0.16

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 19, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

St. Louis Blues

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.5
Corsi share (%)
49.7
Fenwick share (%)
47.5
Faceoff win %
49.9
Penalties / game
2.9

Shots / game: 26.7 · Shooting: 11.6% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.8
Corsi share (%)
46.4
Fenwick share (%)
47.8
Faceoff win %
50.2
Penalties / game
4.4

Shots / game: 27.5 · Shooting: 12.4% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
St. Louis Blues STL
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH
11Points12
0.500Points %0.600
35Goals for34
35Goals against32
0Goal differential2
L1Current streakW1
Road versus home
St. Louis Blues STL road
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH home
6Games7
2Wins5
4Points10
-2Goal differential3
Last 10 games
St. Louis Blues STL
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH
4-5-1Record6-4-0
9Points12
31Goals for34
35Goals against32
-4Goal differential2
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

St. Louis Blues STL 7 wins
10 games reviewed
Washington Capitals WSH 3 wins
Total goals35 – 30
Goal differential +5 / -5
Goals per game3.5 / 3.0
Shots per game25.2 / 27.5
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 24, 2026
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
0 - 3 21 - 27 View
Nov 5, 2025
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
1 - 6 24 - 32 View
Feb 27, 2025
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
5 - 2 19 - 18 View
Nov 9, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
8 - 1 27 - 25 View
Jan 20, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
0 - 3 18 - 29 View
Jan 18, 2024
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
2 - 5 20 - 26 View
Mar 17, 2023
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
5 - 2 22 - 34 View
Nov 17, 2022
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
4 - 5 51 - 24 View
Mar 22, 2022
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
5 - 2 38 - 21 View
Jan 7, 2022
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
1 - 5 27 - 24 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings STL WSH