Skip to content

St. Louis Blues vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 18, 2027

NHL matchup

St. Louis Blues at Toronto Maple Leafs

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 18, 2027.

January 18, 2027 · 6:30 PM CST
Away

St. Louis Blues

5-5-1

39.7%
at
Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

60.3% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 60.3%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

St. Louis Blues logo
Away team

St. Louis Blues

39.7%
Fair American +152
Fair decimal 2.52
Calculate value
Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Home team

Toronto Maple Leafs

60.3%
Fair American -152
Fair decimal 1.66
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 18, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 18. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

St. Louis Blues

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

113:14 together · 10 games

xG share49.2%
Corsi for / against
104 / 102
Fenwick for / against
75 / 86
Corsi share
50.5%
Fenwick share
46.6%
xG for / against
5.79 / 5.98
All observed combinations

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

104:16 together · 10 games

xG share45.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 118
Fenwick for / against
71 / 87
Corsi share
42.4%
Fenwick share
44.9%
xG for / against
4.07 / 4.98
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Joel Hofer

St. Louis Blues · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
157
Save %
91.1
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
34.4

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
150
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
31.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 18, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

St. Louis Blues

xG for / game
2.90
xG against / game
2.82
xG differential / game
0.08

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.20
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.24

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 18, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

St. Louis Blues

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.5
Corsi share (%)
49.7
Fenwick share (%)
47.5
Faceoff win %
49.9
Penalties / game
2.9

Shots / game: 26.7 · Shooting: 11.6% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
46.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.2
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
St. Louis Blues STL
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
11Points16
0.500Points %0.615
35Goals for50
35Goals against41
0Goal differential9
L1Current streakW4
Road versus home
St. Louis Blues STL road
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR home
6Games8
2Wins4
4Points9
-2Goal differential-1
Last 10 games
St. Louis Blues STL
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
4-5-1Record6-2-2
9Points14
31Goals for44
35Goals against34
-4Goal differential10
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

St. Louis Blues STL 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 5 wins
Total goals40 – 34
Goal differential +6 / -6
Goals per game4.0 / 3.4
Shots per game27.9 / 32.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 28, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
1 - 5 13 - 38 View
Nov 18, 2025
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 3 29 - 29 View
Nov 2, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
2 - 4 37 - 24 View
Oct 24, 2024
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 1 27 - 41 View
Feb 19, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
4 - 2 29 - 21 View
Feb 13, 2024
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
1 - 4 15 - 32 View
Jan 3, 2023
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
6 - 5 32 - 25 View
Dec 27, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
5 - 4 37 - 34 View
Feb 19, 2022
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
6 - 3 34 - 37 View
Jan 15, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
6 - 5 40 - 25 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings STL TOR