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St. Louis Blues vs Ottawa Senators prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 13, 2026

NHL matchup

St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 13, 2026.

October 13, 2026 · 6:30 PM CST
Away

St. Louis Blues

5-5-1

7 Model pick
Final
Home

Ottawa Senators

8-4-0

2
Model V2 pick: St. Louis Blues at 50.3% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

St. Louis Blues logo
Away team

St. Louis Blues

50.3%
Fair American -101
Fair decimal 1.99
Best market +100 · BetRivers
Market implied 50.0%
Edge +0.3%
Expected value +0.6%
Calculate value
Ottawa Senators logo
Home team

Ottawa Senators

49.7%
Fair American +101
Fair decimal 2.01
Best market -111 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 52.6%
Edge -2.9%
Expected value -5.5%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 13, 2026.

Ottawa Senators

All Model Picks

Bets
2
Record
1-1
Net units
-0.40
ROI
-19.9%

Value Picks

Bets
1
Record
0-1
Net units
-1.00
ROI
-100.0%

Market Favourite

Bets
3
Record
3-0
Net units
2.13
ROI
71.1%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 13. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

St. Louis Blues

5 / 5 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

55:15 together · 5 games

xG share69.0%
Corsi for / against
60 / 34
Fenwick for / against
41 / 28
Corsi share
63.8%
Fenwick share
59.4%
xG for / against
3.58 / 1.61
All observed combinations

Ottawa Senators

6 / 6 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

45:17 together · 6 games

xG share47.5%
Corsi for / against
40 / 52
Fenwick for / against
28 / 38
Corsi share
43.5%
Fenwick share
42.4%
xG for / against
1.61 / 1.78
Defense pair

78:31 together · 6 games

xG share52.7%
Corsi for / against
83 / 91
Fenwick for / against
62 / 58
Corsi share
47.7%
Fenwick share
51.7%
xG for / against
4.27 / 3.83
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

St. Louis Blues

Joel Hofer 71.4%
Other eligible goalies

Why Joel Hofer?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.648
Started last game
+0.381
Days since last start
+0.313
Goalie win pct before
-0.221
Won previous appearance
-0.196
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 13, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Ottawa Senators

Samuel Ersson 85.7%
Other eligible goalies

Why Samuel Ersson?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Team played yesterday
+1.636
Started last game
+0.450
Days since last start
+0.371
Goalie team start share
-0.347
Team win pct before
+0.211
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 13, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jordan Binnington

St. Louis Blues · Last start: Oct 10

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
59
Save %
84.7
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
30.5

Linus Ullmark

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Oct 12

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
116
Save %
94.8
Goals allowed
6
Close-range shots %
36.2
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 13, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

St. Louis Blues

xG for / game
2.88
xG against / game
2.60
xG differential / game
0.28

5 / 5 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
2.93
xG against / game
2.95
xG differential / game
-0.02

6 / 6 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 13, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

St. Louis Blues

5 / 5 games covered

Attempts / game
55.8
Corsi share (%)
51.3
Fenwick share (%)
48.6
Faceoff win %
45.3
Penalties / game
3.8

Shots / game: 26.0 · Shooting: 10.8% · Avg distance: 33.6 ft

Ottawa Senators

6 / 6 games covered

Attempts / game
52.0
Corsi share (%)
46.1
Fenwick share (%)
47.5
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
5.17

Shots / game: 24.0 · Shooting: 12.5% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
St. Louis Blues STL
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
11Points16
0.500Points %0.667
35Goals for38
35Goals against34
0Goal differential4
L1Current streakW1
Road versus home
St. Louis Blues STL road
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT home
6Games7
2Wins5
4Points10
-2Goal differential1
Last 10 games
St. Louis Blues STL
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
4-5-1Record6-4-0
9Points12
31Goals for31
35Goals against31
-4Goal differential0
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

St. Louis Blues STL 7 wins
10 games reviewed
Ottawa Senators OTT 3 wins
Total goals30 – 30
Goal differential 0 / 0
Goals per game3.0 / 3.0
Shots per game27.1 / 31.3
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Dec 6, 2025
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
2 - 1 20 - 42 View
Nov 28, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
3 - 4 28 - 31 View
Jan 3, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
0 - 4 20 - 25 View
Oct 29, 2024
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 8 27 - 35 View
Mar 21, 2024
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
5 - 2 27 - 39 View
Dec 14, 2023
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
2 - 4 34 - 30 View
Feb 19, 2023
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
2 - 7 32 - 34 View
Jan 16, 2023
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
1 - 2 33 - 20 View
Mar 8, 2022
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
4 - 1 28 - 23 View
Feb 15, 2022
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
5 - 2 36 - 20 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings STL OTT