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St. Louis Blues vs Colorado Avalanche prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 3, 2026

NHL matchup

St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 3, 2026.

October 3, 2026 · 8:00 PM CST
Away

St. Louis Blues

5-5-1

1
Final
Home

Colorado Avalanche

6-5-1

6 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Colorado Avalanche at 59.1% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

St. Louis Blues logo
Away team

St. Louis Blues

40.9%
Fair American +144
Fair decimal 2.44
Best market +236 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 29.8%
Edge +11.1%
Expected value +37.4%
Calculate value
Colorado Avalanche logo
Home team

Colorado Avalanche

59.1%
Fair American -144
Fair decimal 1.69
Best market -275 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 73.3%
Edge -14.2%
Expected value -19.4%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 3, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 3. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

St. Louis Blues

1 / 1 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trioUnder 10 minutes

8:33 together · 1 game

xG share72.9%
Corsi for / against
10 / 5
Fenwick for / against
4 / 4
Corsi share
66.7%
Fenwick share
50.0%
xG for / against
0.52 / 0.19
Defense pair

10:21 together · 1 game

xG share61.1%
Corsi for / against
7 / 7
Fenwick for / against
4 / 6
Corsi share
50.0%
Fenwick share
40.0%
xG for / against
0.38 / 0.24
All observed combinations

Colorado Avalanche

1 / 1 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pairUnder 10 minutes

9:56 together · 1 game

xG share42.2%
Corsi for / against
6 / 13
Fenwick for / against
5 / 9
Corsi share
31.6%
Fenwick share
35.7%
xG for / against
0.33 / 0.45
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Joel Hofer

St. Louis Blues · Last start: Oct 2

1 / 1 appearances covered

Shots faced
25
Save %
100.0
Goals allowed
0
Close-range shots %
32.0

Mackenzie Blackwood

Colorado Avalanche · Last start: Sep 30

1 / 1 appearances covered

Shots faced
31
Save %
87.1
Goals allowed
4
Close-range shots %
25.8
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 3, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

St. Louis Blues

xG for / game
2.69
xG against / game
3.07
xG differential / game
-0.39

1 / 1 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Colorado Avalanche

xG for / game
3.42
xG against / game
2.80
xG differential / game
0.62

1 / 1 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 3, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

St. Louis Blues

1 / 1 games covered

Attempts / game
50.0
Corsi share (%)
45.9
Fenwick share (%)
41.1
Faceoff win %
37.9
Penalties / game
6.0

Shots / game: 24.0 · Shooting: 16.7% · Avg distance: 35.3 ft

Colorado Avalanche

1 / 1 games covered

Attempts / game
50.0
Corsi share (%)
44.6
Fenwick share (%)
43.8
Faceoff win %
36.2
Penalties / game
5.0

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 27.6% · Avg distance: 26.6 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
St. Louis Blues STL
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL
11Points13
0.500Points %0.542
35Goals for49
35Goals against40
0Goal differential9
L1Current streakL1
Road versus home
St. Louis Blues STL road
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL home
6Games6
2Wins4
4Points9
-2Goal differential11
Last 10 games
St. Louis Blues STL
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL
4-5-1Record4-5-1
9Points9
31Goals for35
35Goals against35
-4Goal differential0
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

St. Louis Blues STL 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Colorado Avalanche COL 5 wins
Total goals27 – 30
Goal differential -3 / +3
Goals per game2.7 / 3.0
Shots per game25.7 / 33.7
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 7, 2026
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
3 - 1 37 - 19 View
Apr 5, 2026
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
3 - 2 28 - 28 View
Dec 31, 2025
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
1 - 6 13 - 43 View
Apr 5, 2025
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
4 - 5 39 - 22 View
Mar 29, 2025
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
2 - 1 27 - 29 View
Feb 23, 2025
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
1 - 3 29 - 25 View
Jan 31, 2025
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
0 - 5 19 - 36 View
Mar 19, 2024
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
4 - 3 35 - 33 View
Dec 29, 2023
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
2 - 1 23 - 29 View
Nov 11, 2023
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
8 - 2 42 - 38 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings STL COL