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St. Louis Blues vs Chicago Blackhawks prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 6, 2026

NHL matchup

St. Louis Blues at Chicago Blackhawks

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 6, 2026.

October 6, 2026 · 7:00 PM CST
Away

St. Louis Blues

5-5-1

2
Final
Home

Chicago Blackhawks

3-8-0

4 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Chicago Blackhawks at 53.9% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

St. Louis Blues logo
Away team

St. Louis Blues

46.1%
Fair American +117
Fair decimal 2.17
Best market -140 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 58.3%
Edge -12.2%
Expected value -21.0%
Calculate value
Chicago Blackhawks logo
Home team

Chicago Blackhawks

53.9%
Fair American -117
Fair decimal 1.86
Best market +125 · BetUS
Market implied 44.4%
Edge +9.5%
Expected value +21.3%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 6, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 6. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

St. Louis Blues

2 / 2 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

14:38 together · 2 games

xG share13.8%
Corsi for / against
11 / 12
Fenwick for / against
6 / 8
Corsi share
47.8%
Fenwick share
42.9%
xG for / against
0.16 / 1.03
All observed combinations

Chicago Blackhawks

3 / 3 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

33:20 together · 3 games

xG share43.7%
Corsi for / against
27 / 35
Fenwick for / against
22 / 26
Corsi share
43.5%
Fenwick share
45.8%
xG for / against
1.36 / 1.75
Defense pair

41:11 together · 3 games

xG share32.8%
Corsi for / against
31 / 49
Fenwick for / against
24 / 37
Corsi share
38.8%
Fenwick share
39.3%
xG for / against
1.19 / 2.44
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jordan Binnington

St. Louis Blues · Last start: Oct 3

1 / 1 appearances covered

Shots faced
36
Save %
83.3
Goals allowed
6
Close-range shots %
33.3

Spencer Knight

Chicago Blackhawks · Last start: Oct 3

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
64
Save %
87.5
Goals allowed
8
Close-range shots %
37.5
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 6, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

St. Louis Blues

xG for / game
2.25
xG against / game
3.42
xG differential / game
-1.17

2 / 2 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Chicago Blackhawks

xG for / game
2.08
xG against / game
4.01
xG differential / game
-1.93

3 / 3 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 6, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

St. Louis Blues

2 / 2 games covered

Attempts / game
52.5
Corsi share (%)
45.7
Fenwick share (%)
42.5
Faceoff win %
41.1
Penalties / game
5.0

Shots / game: 25.0 · Shooting: 10.0% · Avg distance: 37.5 ft

Chicago Blackhawks

3 / 3 games covered

Attempts / game
42.7
Corsi share (%)
40.1
Fenwick share (%)
39.2
Faceoff win %
39.9
Penalties / game
3.67

Shots / game: 18.7 · Shooting: 8.9% · Avg distance: 36.7 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
St. Louis Blues STL
Metric
Chicago Blackhawks CHI
11Points6
0.500Points %0.273
35Goals for24
35Goals against43
0Goal differential-19
L1Current streakL3
Road versus home
St. Louis Blues STL road
Metric
Chicago Blackhawks CHI home
6Games7
2Wins3
4Points6
-2Goal differential-6
Last 10 games
St. Louis Blues STL
Metric
Chicago Blackhawks CHI
4-5-1Record3-7-0
9Points6
31Goals for22
35Goals against38
-4Goal differential-16
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

St. Louis Blues STL 7 wins
10 games reviewed
Chicago Blackhawks CHI 3 wins
Total goals43 – 38
Goal differential +5 / -5
Goals per game4.3 / 3.8
Shots per game31.0 / 26.9
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 11, 2026
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
5 - 3 28 - 34 View
Jan 7, 2026
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
3 - 7 30 - 35 View
Dec 12, 2025
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
2 - 3 29 - 26 View
Oct 15, 2025
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
8 - 3 29 - 26 View
Mar 22, 2025
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
1 - 4 27 - 25 View
Feb 8, 2025
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
5 - 6 21 - 40 View
Dec 31, 2024
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
6 - 2 28 - 30 View
Apr 10, 2024
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
2 - 5 20 - 26 View
Dec 23, 2023
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
5 - 7 20 - 42 View
Dec 9, 2023
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
1 - 3 39 - 24 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings STL CHI