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Seattle Kraken vs Washington Capitals prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 11, 2026

NHL matchup

Seattle Kraken at Washington Capitals

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 11, 2026.

October 11, 2026 · 4:00 PM CST
Away

Seattle Kraken

7-4-1

5
Final
Home

Washington Capitals

6-4-0

3 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Washington Capitals at 51.0% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Seattle Kraken logo
Away team

Seattle Kraken

49.0%
Fair American +104
Fair decimal 2.04
Best market +185 · BetRivers
Market implied 35.1%
Edge +13.9%
Expected value +39.7%
Calculate value
Washington Capitals logo
Home team

Washington Capitals

51.0%
Fair American -104
Fair decimal 1.96
Best market -208 · MyBookie.ag
Market implied 67.5%
Edge -16.5%
Expected value -24.5%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 11, 2026.

Seattle Kraken

All Model Picks

Bets
2
Record
2-0
Net units
1.94
ROI
96.8%

Value Picks

Bets
3
Record
1-2
Net units
-0.73
ROI
-24.3%

Market Favourite

Bets
1
Record
1-0
Net units
0.67
ROI
66.7%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 11. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Seattle Kraken

5 / 5 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

79:41 together · 5 games

xG share57.6%
Corsi for / against
77 / 77
Fenwick for / against
59 / 55
Corsi share
50.0%
Fenwick share
51.8%
xG for / against
4.21 / 3.10
All observed combinations

Washington Capitals

4 / 4 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

33:59 together · 4 games

xG share56.1%
Corsi for / against
35 / 36
Fenwick for / against
28 / 27
Corsi share
49.3%
Fenwick share
50.9%
xG for / against
2.71 / 2.12
Defense pair

31:56 together · 4 games

xG share64.2%
Corsi for / against
36 / 27
Fenwick for / against
27 / 19
Corsi share
57.1%
Fenwick share
58.7%
xG for / against
2.00 / 1.11
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Seattle Kraken

Joey Daccord 60.5%
Other eligible goalies

Why Joey Daccord?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.655
Goalie win pct before
+0.453
Prev save pct
-0.327
Started last game
+0.322
Days since last start
+0.262
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 11, 1:38 PM Winnipeg time

Washington Capitals

Logan Thompson 66.4%
Other eligible goalies

Why Logan Thompson?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.959
Team win pct before
-0.511
Started last game
-0.371
Won previous appearance
+0.171
Consecutive starts
-0.159
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 11, 1:38 PM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Philipp Grubauer

Seattle Kraken · Last start: Oct 9

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
72
Save %
91.7
Goals allowed
6
Close-range shots %
29.2

Logan Thompson

Washington Capitals · Last start: Oct 9

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
85
Save %
92.9
Goals allowed
6
Close-range shots %
32.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 11, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Seattle Kraken

xG for / game
2.96
xG against / game
3.23
xG differential / game
-0.27

5 / 5 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Washington Capitals

xG for / game
3.41
xG against / game
3.63
xG differential / game
-0.21

4 / 4 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 11, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Seattle Kraken

5 / 5 games covered

Attempts / game
50.2
Corsi share (%)
41.7
Fenwick share (%)
44.6
Faceoff win %
50.2
Penalties / game
4.8

Shots / game: 26.0 · Shooting: 16.2% · Avg distance: 32.2 ft

Washington Capitals

4 / 4 games covered

Attempts / game
55.0
Corsi share (%)
46.4
Fenwick share (%)
47.5
Faceoff win %
49.3
Penalties / game
5.5

Shots / game: 25.5 · Shooting: 13.7% · Avg distance: 33.0 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Seattle Kraken SEA
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH
15Points12
0.625Points %0.600
45Goals for34
42Goals against32
3Goal differential2
L1Current streakW1
Road versus home
Seattle Kraken SEA road
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH home
7Games7
4Wins5
9Points10
3Goal differential3
Last 10 games
Seattle Kraken SEA
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH
6-3-1Record6-4-0
13Points12
38Goals for34
38Goals against32
0Goal differential2
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Seattle Kraken SEA 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Washington Capitals WSH 6 wins
Total goals24 – 28
Goal differential -4 / +4
Goals per game2.4 / 2.8
Shots per game26.5 / 28.4
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 27, 2026
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken
1 - 5 20 - 32 View
Oct 21, 2025
Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
1 - 4 19 - 34 View
Mar 9, 2025
Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
2 - 4 32 - 24 View
Jan 23, 2025
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken
3 - 0 32 - 22 View
Mar 14, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken
2 - 1 23 - 24 View
Jan 11, 2024
Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
4 - 1 23 - 26 View
Dec 9, 2022
Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
1 - 4 26 - 38 View
Dec 1, 2022
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken
2 - 3 23 - 25 View
Mar 5, 2022
Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
2 - 5 31 - 25 View
Nov 21, 2021
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken
2 - 5 39 - 31 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings SEA WSH