Skip to content

San Jose Sharks vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 19, 2026

NHL matchup

San Jose Sharks at Toronto Maple Leafs

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 19, 2026.

October 19, 2026 · 6:30 PM CST
Away

San Jose Sharks

6-5-1

1
Final
Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

3 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 60.5% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

San Jose Sharks logo
Away team

San Jose Sharks

39.5%
Fair American +153
Fair decimal 2.53
Best market +114 · DraftKings
Market implied 46.7%
Edge -7.2%
Expected value -15.5%
Calculate value
Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Home team

Toronto Maple Leafs

60.5%
Fair American -153
Fair decimal 1.65
Best market -128 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 56.1%
Edge +4.4%
Expected value +7.8%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 19, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 19. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

San Jose Sharks

8 / 8 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

98:03 together · 7 games

xG share33.4%
Corsi for / against
74 / 98
Fenwick for / against
53 / 67
Corsi share
43.0%
Fenwick share
44.2%
xG for / against
2.66 / 5.32
All observed combinations

Toronto Maple Leafs

9 / 9 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

76:27 together · 9 games

xG share58.8%
Corsi for / against
81 / 50
Fenwick for / against
61 / 39
Corsi share
61.8%
Fenwick share
61.0%
xG for / against
4.07 / 2.85
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

San Jose Sharks

Alex Nedeljkovic 51.3%
Other eligible goalies

Why Alex Nedeljkovic?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
-0.395
Started last game
-0.370
Goalie win pct before
+0.230
Won previous appearance
-0.210
Goalie season starts before
-0.106
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 19, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Toronto Maple Leafs

Sergei Bobrovsky 50.9%
Other eligible goalies

Why Sergei Bobrovsky?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.410
Prev save pct
-0.395
Goalie team start share
+0.351
Started last game
-0.282
Goalie win pct before
-0.279
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 19, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Alex Nedeljkovic

San Jose Sharks · Last start: Oct 17

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
87
Save %
92.0
Goals allowed
7
Close-range shots %
32.2

Sergei Bobrovsky

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 17

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
159
Save %
89.3
Goals allowed
17
Close-range shots %
34.0
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 19, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

San Jose Sharks

xG for / game
2.90
xG against / game
3.81
xG differential / game
-0.91

8 / 8 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.03
xG against / game
3.49
xG differential / game
-0.46

9 / 9 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 19, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

San Jose Sharks

8 / 8 games covered

Attempts / game
56.6
Corsi share (%)
47.6
Fenwick share (%)
47.2
Faceoff win %
47.0
Penalties / game
3.75

Shots / game: 27.6 · Shooting: 9.5% · Avg distance: 34.7 ft

Toronto Maple Leafs

9 / 9 games covered

Attempts / game
53.0
Corsi share (%)
46.0
Fenwick share (%)
47.4
Faceoff win %
52.3
Penalties / game
3.89

Shots / game: 28.0 · Shooting: 11.5% · Avg distance: 31.0 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
San Jose Sharks SJS
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
13Points16
0.542Points %0.615
37Goals for50
43Goals against41
-6Goal differential9
L1Current streakW4
Road versus home
San Jose Sharks SJS road
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR home
8Games8
4Wins4
9Points9
-3Goal differential-1
Last 10 games
San Jose Sharks SJS
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
4-5-1Record6-2-2
9Points14
28Goals for44
36Goals against34
-8Goal differential10
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

San Jose Sharks SJS 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 4 wins
Total goals29 – 34
Goal differential -5 / +5
Goals per game2.9 / 3.4
Shots per game28.2 / 31.2
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 2, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
1 - 4 19 - 25 View
Dec 11, 2025
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 2 32 - 30 View
Mar 27, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
5 - 6 35 - 35 View
Mar 3, 2025
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 2 22 - 27 View
Jan 9, 2024
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
1 - 7 23 - 46 View
Jan 6, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
4 - 1 32 - 24 View
Nov 30, 2022
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
1 - 3 24 - 32 View
Oct 27, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
3 - 4 25 - 31 View
Nov 26, 2021
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
4 - 1 33 - 35 View
Oct 22, 2021
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 3 31 - 33 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings SJS TOR