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San Jose Sharks vs Ottawa Senators prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 22, 2026

NHL matchup

San Jose Sharks at Ottawa Senators

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 22, 2026.

October 22, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

San Jose Sharks

6-6-1

6 Model pick
Final
Home

Ottawa Senators

8-5-0

2
Model V2 pick: San Jose Sharks at 50.8% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

San Jose Sharks logo
Away team

San Jose Sharks

50.8%
Fair American -103
Fair decimal 1.97
Best market +117 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 46.1%
Edge +4.7%
Expected value +10.2%
Calculate value
Ottawa Senators logo
Home team

Ottawa Senators

49.2%
Fair American +103
Fair decimal 2.03
Best market -133 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 57.1%
Edge -7.9%
Expected value -13.8%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 22, 2026.

Ottawa Senators

All Model Picks

Bets
4
Record
2-2
Net units
-0.73
ROI
-18.3%

Value Picks

Bets
1
Record
0-1
Net units
-1.00
ROI
-100.0%

Market Favourite

Bets
6
Record
4-2
Net units
0.80
ROI
13.3%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 22. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

San Jose Sharks

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

124:16 together · 9 games

xG share38.0%
Corsi for / against
97 / 130
Fenwick for / against
72 / 93
Corsi share
42.7%
Fenwick share
43.6%
xG for / against
4.28 / 6.98
All observed combinations

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

55:02 together · 10 games

xG share47.4%
Corsi for / against
49 / 66
Fenwick for / against
35 / 51
Corsi share
42.6%
Fenwick share
40.7%
xG for / against
2.16 / 2.40
Defense pair

93:18 together · 9 games

xG share52.6%
Corsi for / against
92 / 100
Fenwick for / against
68 / 66
Corsi share
47.9%
Fenwick share
50.7%
xG for / against
4.70 / 4.24
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

San Jose Sharks

Yaroslav Askarov 61.3%
Other eligible goalies

Why Yaroslav Askarov?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.773
Prev save pct
+0.346
Started last game
+0.313
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
-0.232
Days since last start
+0.220
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 22, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Ottawa Senators

Samuel Ersson 88.9%
Other eligible goalies

Why Samuel Ersson?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Team played yesterday
+1.294
Started last game
+0.466
Goalie team start share
-0.437
Days since last start
+0.380
Prev save pct
+0.196
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 22, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Alex Nedeljkovic

San Jose Sharks · Last start: Oct 20

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
121
Save %
91.7
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
28.9

Linus Ullmark

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Oct 21

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
114
Save %
93.9
Goals allowed
7
Close-range shots %
24.6
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 22, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

San Jose Sharks

xG for / game
3.05
xG against / game
3.81
xG differential / game
-0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
2.79
xG against / game
2.73
xG differential / game
0.06

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 22, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

San Jose Sharks

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.5
Corsi share (%)
46.8
Fenwick share (%)
46.4
Faceoff win %
47.7
Penalties / game
4.1

Shots / game: 28.2 · Shooting: 9.2% · Avg distance: 33.7 ft

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
50.7
Corsi share (%)
47.1
Fenwick share (%)
47.8
Faceoff win %
52.4
Penalties / game
5.4

Shots / game: 23.8 · Shooting: 11.3% · Avg distance: 31.6 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
San Jose Sharks SJS
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
13Points16
0.500Points %0.615
37Goals for39
45Goals against38
-8Goal differential1
L2Current streakL1
Road versus home
San Jose Sharks SJS road
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT home
8Games7
4Wins5
9Points10
-3Goal differential1
Last 10 games
San Jose Sharks SJS
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
4-5-1Record6-4-0
9Points12
28Goals for29
33Goals against30
-5Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

San Jose Sharks SJS 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Ottawa Senators OTT 6 wins
Total goals33 – 35
Goal differential -2 / +2
Goals per game3.3 / 3.5
Shots per game27.8 / 30.4
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 15, 2026
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
4 - 7 23 - 24 View
Nov 22, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
3 - 2 27 - 19 View
Mar 1, 2025
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
3 - 5 37 - 32 View
Nov 27, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
4 - 3 11 - 39 View
Mar 9, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
1 - 2 32 - 21 View
Jan 13, 2024
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
4 - 5 18 - 41 View
Dec 3, 2022
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
2 - 5 37 - 39 View
Nov 21, 2022
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
1 - 5 38 - 31 View
Nov 24, 2021
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
3 - 6 29 - 29 View
Oct 21, 2021
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
2 - 1 24 - 31 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings SJS OTT