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San Jose Sharks vs Dallas Stars prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 5, 2026

NHL matchup

San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 5, 2026.

October 5, 2026 · 7:00 PM CST
Away

San Jose Sharks

6-5-1

0
Final
Home

Dallas Stars

7-3-1

5 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Dallas Stars at 50.9% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

San Jose Sharks logo
Away team

San Jose Sharks

49.1%
Fair American +104
Fair decimal 2.04
Best market +173 · Bovada
Market implied 36.6%
Edge +12.5%
Expected value +34.0%
Calculate value
Dallas Stars logo
Home team

Dallas Stars

50.9%
Fair American -104
Fair decimal 1.96
Best market -182 · MyBookie.ag
Market implied 64.5%
Edge -13.6%
Expected value -21.1%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 5, 2026.

Dallas Stars

All Model Picks

Bets
1
Record
0-1
Net units
-1.00
ROI
-100.0%

Value Picks

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Net units
0.00
ROI
—

Market Favourite

Bets
2
Record
0-2
Net units
-2.00
ROI
-100.0%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 5. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

San Jose Sharks

2 / 2 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

28:45 together · 2 games

xG share44.2%
Corsi for / against
22 / 28
Fenwick for / against
16 / 20
Corsi share
44.0%
Fenwick share
44.4%
xG for / against
0.88 / 1.11
All observed combinations

Dallas Stars

2 / 2 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

23:21 together · 2 games

xG share54.6%
Corsi for / against
22 / 23
Fenwick for / against
14 / 15
Corsi share
48.9%
Fenwick share
48.3%
xG for / against
0.90 / 0.75
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Yaroslav Askarov

San Jose Sharks · Last start: Oct 3

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
61
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
7
Close-range shots %
27.9

Casey DeSmith

Dallas Stars · Last start: Oct 3

1 / 1 appearances covered

Shots faced
26
Save %
92.3
Goals allowed
2
Close-range shots %
50.0
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

San Jose Sharks

xG for / game
2.86
xG against / game
4.08
xG differential / game
-1.22

2 / 2 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Dallas Stars

xG for / game
2.65
xG against / game
2.44
xG differential / game
0.22

2 / 2 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

San Jose Sharks

2 / 2 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
43.7
Fenwick share (%)
43.7
Faceoff win %
44.9
Penalties / game
5.0

Shots / game: 28.5 · Shooting: 15.8% · Avg distance: 36.8 ft

Dallas Stars

2 / 2 games covered

Attempts / game
62.0
Corsi share (%)
54.9
Fenwick share (%)
56.6
Faceoff win %
54.5
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 27.5 · Shooting: 1.8% · Avg distance: 35.4 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
San Jose Sharks SJS
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL
13Points15
0.542Points %0.682
37Goals for32
43Goals against20
-6Goal differential12
L1Current streakW5
Road versus home
San Jose Sharks SJS road
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL home
8Games6
4Wins4
9Points8
-3Goal differential5
Last 10 games
San Jose Sharks SJS
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL
4-5-1Record7-2-1
9Points15
28Goals for32
36Goals against16
-8Goal differential16
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

San Jose Sharks SJS 2 wins
10 games reviewed
Dallas Stars DAL 8 wins
Total goals32 – 48
Goal differential -16 / +16
Goals per game3.2 / 4.8
Shots per game25.3 / 33.2
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 10, 2026
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
4 - 5 20 - 31 View
Dec 18, 2025
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
5 - 3 30 - 37 View
Dec 5, 2025
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
1 - 4 17 - 24 View
Feb 8, 2025
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
8 - 3 34 - 27 View
Nov 20, 2024
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
2 - 5 23 - 31 View
Oct 15, 2024
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
2 - 3 27 - 38 View
Mar 26, 2024
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
6 - 3 41 - 20 View
Mar 5, 2024
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
7 - 6 40 - 20 View
Mar 2, 2024
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
2 - 3 23 - 38 View
Jan 18, 2023
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
3 - 5 36 - 28 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings SJS DAL