Skip to content

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Washington Capitals prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 7, 2026

NHL matchup

Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 7, 2026.

October 7, 2026 · 6:30 PM CST
Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

5-6-1

3
Final
Home

Washington Capitals

6-4-0

5 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Washington Capitals at 50.5% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Pittsburgh Penguins logo
Away team

Pittsburgh Penguins

49.5%
Fair American +102
Fair decimal 2.02
Best market +140 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 41.7%
Edge +7.8%
Expected value +18.8%
Calculate value
Washington Capitals logo
Home team

Washington Capitals

50.5%
Fair American -102
Fair decimal 1.98
Best market -155 · BetUS
Market implied 60.8%
Edge -10.3%
Expected value -16.9%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 7, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 7. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Pittsburgh Penguins

3 / 3 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

39:54 together · 3 games

xG share60.9%
Corsi for / against
43 / 42
Fenwick for / against
34 / 26
Corsi share
50.6%
Fenwick share
56.7%
xG for / against
2.12 / 1.36
All observed combinations

Washington Capitals

2 / 2 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

21:35 together · 2 games

xG share42.1%
Corsi for / against
17 / 22
Fenwick for / against
11 / 17
Corsi share
43.6%
Fenwick share
39.3%
xG for / against
0.93 / 1.28
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Sergei Murashov

Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Oct 5

1 / 1 appearances covered

Shots faced
35
Save %
91.4
Goals allowed
3
Close-range shots %
22.9

Charlie Lindgren

Washington Capitals · Last start: Oct 3

1 / 1 appearances covered

Shots faced
29
Save %
93.1
Goals allowed
2
Close-range shots %
24.1
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 7, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Pittsburgh Penguins

xG for / game
3.43
xG against / game
2.50
xG differential / game
0.93

3 / 3 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Washington Capitals

xG for / game
3.00
xG against / game
3.98
xG differential / game
-0.97

2 / 2 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 7, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Pittsburgh Penguins

3 / 3 games covered

Attempts / game
59.7
Corsi share (%)
50.7
Fenwick share (%)
52.0
Faceoff win %
45.5
Penalties / game
3.0

Shots / game: 33.0 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 31.0 ft

Washington Capitals

2 / 2 games covered

Attempts / game
52.0
Corsi share (%)
41.9
Fenwick share (%)
42.6
Faceoff win %
46.4
Penalties / game
7.5

Shots / game: 24.0 · Shooting: 12.5% · Avg distance: 32.9 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH
11Points12
0.458Points %0.600
40Goals for34
40Goals against32
0Goal differential2
W2Current streakW1
Road versus home
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT road
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH home
7Games7
1Wins5
3Points10
-6Goal differential3
Last 10 games
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH
3-6-1Record6-4-0
7Points12
27Goals for34
35Goals against32
-8Goal differential2
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Pittsburgh Penguins PIT 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Washington Capitals WSH 6 wins
Total goals28 – 39
Goal differential -11 / +11
Goals per game2.8 / 3.9
Shots per game28.6 / 28.5
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 12, 2026
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
0 - 3 24 - 26 View
Apr 11, 2026
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
6 - 3 31 - 12 View
Nov 6, 2025
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
3 - 5 30 - 31 View
Apr 17, 2025
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
2 - 5 20 - 38 View
Feb 22, 2025
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
8 - 3 30 - 32 View
Jan 18, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
1 - 4 19 - 32 View
Nov 8, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
4 - 2 32 - 34 View
Apr 4, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
4 - 1 24 - 31 View
Mar 7, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
6 - 0 29 - 39 View
Jan 2, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
4 - 3 22 - 35 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings PIT WSH