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Pittsburgh Penguins vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 16, 2027

NHL matchup

Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 16, 2027.

January 16, 2027 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

5-6-1

40.7%
at
Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

59.3% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 59.3%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Pittsburgh Penguins logo
Away team

Pittsburgh Penguins

40.7%
Fair American +146
Fair decimal 2.46
Calculate value
Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Home team

Toronto Maple Leafs

59.3%
Fair American -146
Fair decimal 1.69
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 16, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 16. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Pittsburgh Penguins

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

62:36 together · 7 games

xG share45.1%
Corsi for / against
62 / 60
Fenwick for / against
44 / 50
Corsi share
50.8%
Fenwick share
46.8%
xG for / against
3.72 / 4.52
Defense pair

83:42 together · 10 games

xG share41.7%
Corsi for / against
96 / 88
Fenwick for / against
70 / 70
Corsi share
52.2%
Fenwick share
50.0%
xG for / against
3.95 / 5.54
All observed combinations

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

104:16 together · 10 games

xG share45.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 118
Fenwick for / against
71 / 87
Corsi share
42.4%
Fenwick share
44.9%
xG for / against
4.07 / 4.98
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Arturs Silovs

Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
138
Save %
90.6
Goals allowed
13
Close-range shots %
32.6

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
150
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
31.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 16, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Pittsburgh Penguins

xG for / game
3.15
xG against / game
3.33
xG differential / game
-0.18

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.20
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.24

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 16, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Pittsburgh Penguins

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
57.9
Corsi share (%)
50.9
Fenwick share (%)
50.1
Faceoff win %
46.6
Penalties / game
2.9

Shots / game: 26.5 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
46.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.2
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
11Points16
0.458Points %0.615
40Goals for50
40Goals against41
0Goal differential9
W2Current streakW4
Road versus home
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT road
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR home
7Games8
1Wins4
3Points9
-6Goal differential-1
Last 10 games
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
3-6-1Record6-2-2
7Points14
27Goals for44
35Goals against34
-8Goal differential10
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Pittsburgh Penguins PIT 2 wins
10 games reviewed
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 8 wins
Total goals26 – 45
Goal differential -19 / +19
Goals per game2.6 / 4.5
Shots per game32.2 / 29.9
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Dec 23, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 6 32 - 31 View
Nov 29, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
7 - 2 23 - 35 View
Nov 3, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 4 37 - 20 View
Mar 2, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
6 - 5 33 - 34 View
Dec 7, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
2 - 5 27 - 29 View
Oct 12, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 4 23 - 33 View
Apr 8, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 3 33 - 23 View
Dec 16, 2023
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
0 - 7 38 - 35 View
Nov 25, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
2 - 3 33 - 35 View
Nov 26, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
4 - 1 41 - 26 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings PIT TOR