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Pittsburgh Penguins vs Philadelphia Flyers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for September 30, 2026

NHL matchup

Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for September 30, 2026.

September 30, 2026 · 6:30 PM CST
Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

5-6-1

7 Model pick
Final
Home

Philadelphia Flyers

3-7-3

0
Model V2 pick: Pittsburgh Penguins at 58.2% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Pittsburgh Penguins logo
Away team

Pittsburgh Penguins

58.2%
Fair American -139
Fair decimal 1.72
Best market +122 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 45.0%
Edge +13.2%
Expected value +29.2%
Calculate value
Philadelphia Flyers logo
Home team

Philadelphia Flyers

41.8%
Fair American +139
Fair decimal 2.39
Best market -138 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 58.0%
Edge -16.2%
Expected value -27.9%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Sep 30, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Sep 30. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Pittsburgh Penguins

No completed regular-season games in this window.

All observed combinations

Philadelphia Flyers

No completed regular-season games in this window.

All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Sep 30, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Pittsburgh Penguins

xG unavailable.

0 / 0 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Philadelphia Flyers

xG unavailable.

0 / 0 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Sep 30, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
Metric
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
11Points9
0.458Points %0.346
40Goals for24
40Goals against42
0Goal differential-18
W2Current streakL1
Road versus home
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT road
Metric
Philadelphia Flyers PHI home
7Games7
1Wins2
3Points6
-6Goal differential-10
Last 10 games
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
Metric
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
3-6-1Record3-6-1
7Points7
27Goals for20
35Goals against29
-8Goal differential-9
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Pittsburgh Penguins PIT 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Philadelphia Flyers PHI 4 wins
Total goals42 – 34
Goal differential +8 / -8
Goals per game4.2 / 3.4
Shots per game28.1 / 29.1
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 7, 2026
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
4 - 3 15 - 23 View
Jan 15, 2026
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
3 - 6 33 - 30 View
Dec 1, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
5 - 1 27 - 29 View
Oct 28, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
2 - 3 26 - 34 View
Feb 27, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
4 - 5 37 - 25 View
Feb 25, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
1 - 6 24 - 38 View
Feb 8, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
2 - 3 33 - 20 View
Dec 23, 2024
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
3 - 7 27 - 22 View
Feb 25, 2024
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
6 - 7 21 - 32 View
Jan 8, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
4 - 1 39 - 37 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings PIT PHI